国际航运业的碳排放控制方向正确吗？

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.009

Lang Xu , Jiyuan Wu , Ran Yan , Jihong Chen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

与国际海事组织（IMO）实现海上运输零排放的目标一致，航运业面临着到2050年实现净零碳排放的越来越大的压力。本研究采用Kaya恒等内的对数平均分割指数（LMDI）方法，分析2010 - 2050年国际航运碳排放的历史趋势和未来项目，重点分析主要驱动因素。研究结果表明，随着排放法规的收紧，全球经济增长和海运贸易的扩大可能会推动碳排放总量上升。然而，碳强度和能源效率的改善呈下降趋势。在这些情景中，净零脱碳途径是最有效的，到2050年，与一切照旧和工业途径相比，净零脱碳途径的碳排放量分别减少92.15%和40%。区域分析表明，欧洲根据严格的法规有效地管理了排放，而亚洲和大洋洲的排放量由于海运贸易的快速增长而增加。就船舶类型而言，油轮和散货船被确定为排放的最大贡献者，反映出它们在全球贸易量中的主导地位。这些措施加快了工业向可持续发展的转型，符合脱碳目标。

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Is international shipping in right direction towards carbon emissions control?

Aligned with the goals of International Maritime Organization (IMO) to achieve zero emissions in maritime transport, the shipping industry is under increasing pressures to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This study uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method within the Kaya identity to analyze the historical trends and future projects in carbon emissions of international shipping from 2010 to 2050, focusing on main driving factors. The findings reveal that as emission regulations tighten, global economic growth and expanding seaborne trade are likely to drive total carbon emissions upward. However, the improvements in carbon intensity and energy efficiency exhibit a downward trend. Among these scenarios, the net-zero decarbonization pathway emerges as the most effective, achieving reductions in carbon emissions of 92.15 % and 40 % by 2050 compared to the business-as-usual and industrial pathways, respectively. Regional analysis indicates that Europe has effectively managed emissions in line with stringent regulations, whereas emissions in Asia and Oceania have increased due to the rapid growth of seaborne trade. For the ship type, oil tankers and bulk carriers are identified as the largest contributors to emissions, reflecting their dominant role in global trade volume. Such measures accelerate the industrial transition towards sustainable development, aligning with decarbonization targets.

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.