Complex data in tourism analysis: A stochastic approach to price competition

This study examines pricing strategies and decision-making processes in the hospitality industry by analyzing “ask” prices on online travel agencies (i.e., the rates at which hoteliers are willing to sell their rooms). We face the challenge of modeling a continuous flow of big data organized as “time series of time series,” where daily seasonality and advance bookings intersect. Our research combines insights from tourism, quantitative methods, and big data to improve pricing strategies, contributing to both theory and practice in revenue management. Focusing on Venice, we analyze price competition as a multivariate stochastic process using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach, aligning with modern dynamic pricing algorithms.

The findings show that time-based pricing strategies, which adjust based on the day of arrival and booking, are more important than room features in setting hotel prices. We also find that price changes have a non-linear and decreasing effect as the booking date approaches. These insights suggest that hotels could create more advanced pricing strategies, and policymakers should consider these factors when addressing the challenges related to overtourism.

We study the complex competitive relationships among heterogeneous service providers with an approach applicable to any market where consumption is delayed relative to purchase time. However, we highlight that the quality and accessibility of information in the tourism sector are key aspects to be considered when using big data in this industry.