最近西非季风季节尼日利亚植被趋势及其对CORDEX-Africa的近期影响

IF 5.6 1区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110499

Ugochukwu K. Okoro , Chijioke U. Opara , Hyacinth C. Nnamchi , Wen Chen

{"title":"最近西非季风季节尼日利亚植被趋势及其对CORDEX-Africa的近期影响","authors":"Ugochukwu K. Okoro , Chijioke U. Opara , Hyacinth C. Nnamchi , Wen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110499","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigated the impact of recent West African monsoon seasonal rainfall on the vegetation trend in Nigeria. Using Mann-Kendall test, the satellite estimates revealed increasing trends in the mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at 95 % in area of the location between 1981 and 2020 with statistical significance (at<span><math><mrow><mspace></mspace><mi>α</mi><mo>≤</mo><mn>0.5</mn></mrow></math></span> levels of significance) in the south-western States. The 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational rainfall within the same period indicated increasing trends at 73 % of the area with statistical significance (at <span><math><mrow><mi>α</mi><mo>≤</mo><mn>0.5</mn></mrow></math></span> levels of significance) in the northern States above the 9° N latitude. From the temporal correlations between the seasonal rainfall and vegetation trends, there was significant (at 95 % confidence level from the <em>t</em>-test) positive characteristic impact on 89 % of the area. The CORDEX-Africa historical experiment outputs (1981–2005) of the selected models and the ensemble mean revealed strong correlation values with high normalized RMSE when representing the seasonal rainfall simulation. The bias-corrected output (2006–2020) in the RCP 8.5 experiment showed notably enhanced representation quality of the models and the ensemble mean, with 87 % of the area demonstrating “reasonable performance” efficiency. The 6-month SPI projection from 2021 to 2050 indicated positive trends in 84 % of the area. Indeed, the relative percentage difference between projected and baseline trends compellingly suggests a decrease in seasonal rains by 2050, intensifying the demand on vegetation and introducing additional climate challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50839,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","volume":"367 ","pages":"Article 110499"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Nigeria vegetation trend during recent West African monsoon season and the near future implications in CORDEX-Africa\",\"authors\":\"Ugochukwu K. Okoro , Chijioke U. Opara , Hyacinth C. Nnamchi , Wen Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110499\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study investigated the impact of recent West African monsoon seasonal rainfall on the vegetation trend in Nigeria. Using Mann-Kendall test, the satellite estimates revealed increasing trends in the mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at 95 % in area of the location between 1981 and 2020 with statistical significance (at<span><math><mrow><mspace></mspace><mi>α</mi><mo>≤</mo><mn>0.5</mn></mrow></math></span> levels of significance) in the south-western States. The 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational rainfall within the same period indicated increasing trends at 73 % of the area with statistical significance (at <span><math><mrow><mi>α</mi><mo>≤</mo><mn>0.5</mn></mrow></math></span> levels of significance) in the northern States above the 9° N latitude. From the temporal correlations between the seasonal rainfall and vegetation trends, there was significant (at 95 % confidence level from the <em>t</em>-test) positive characteristic impact on 89 % of the area. The CORDEX-Africa historical experiment outputs (1981–2005) of the selected models and the ensemble mean revealed strong correlation values with high normalized RMSE when representing the seasonal rainfall simulation. The bias-corrected output (2006–2020) in the RCP 8.5 experiment showed notably enhanced representation quality of the models and the ensemble mean, with 87 % of the area demonstrating “reasonable performance” efficiency. The 6-month SPI projection from 2021 to 2050 indicated positive trends in 84 % of the area. Indeed, the relative percentage difference between projected and baseline trends compellingly suggests a decrease in seasonal rains by 2050, intensifying the demand on vegetation and introducing additional climate challenges.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50839,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology\",\"volume\":\"367 \",\"pages\":\"Article 110499\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192325001194\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AGRONOMY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192325001194","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AGRONOMY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了近期西非季风季节降雨对尼日利亚植被趋势的影响。利用Mann-Kendall检验，在1981 - 2020年期间，西南各州的归一化植被指数（NDVI）在95%的范围内呈增加趋势，且具有统计学显著性（α≤0.5α≤0.5显著性水平）。气候研究中心（CRU）同期观测降水的6个月标准化降水指数（SPI）显示，北纬9°以上地区73%的地区呈显著增加趋势，显著性水平为α≤0.5α≤0.5。从季节降雨和植被趋势之间的时间相关性来看，89%的地区存在显著的（95%置信水平的t检验）正特征影响。所选模式的CORDEX-Africa历史实验输出（1981-2005）与集合平均值在表示季节降雨模拟时显示出很强的相关值，且具有较高的归一化RMSE。RCP 8.5实验中的偏差校正输出（2006-2020）显示，模型和集合均值的表示质量显著提高，87%的区域显示出“合理性能”效率。从2021年到2050年的6个月SPI预测显示，该地区84%的地区呈积极趋势。事实上，预估趋势与基线趋势之间的相对百分比差异令人信服地表明，到2050年季节性降雨将减少，从而加剧对植被的需求，并带来额外的气候挑战。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Nigeria vegetation trend during recent West African monsoon season and the near future implications in CORDEX-Africa

This study investigated the impact of recent West African monsoon seasonal rainfall on the vegetation trend in Nigeria. Using Mann-Kendall test, the satellite estimates revealed increasing trends in the mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at 95 % in area of the location between 1981 and 2020 with statistical significance (at

α \leq 0.5

levels of significance) in the south-western States. The 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational rainfall within the same period indicated increasing trends at 73 % of the area with statistical significance (at

α \leq 0.5

levels of significance) in the northern States above the 9° N latitude. From the temporal correlations between the seasonal rainfall and vegetation trends, there was significant (at 95 % confidence level from the t-test) positive characteristic impact on 89 % of the area. The CORDEX-Africa historical experiment outputs (1981–2005) of the selected models and the ensemble mean revealed strong correlation values with high normalized RMSE when representing the seasonal rainfall simulation. The bias-corrected output (2006–2020) in the RCP 8.5 experiment showed notably enhanced representation quality of the models and the ensemble mean, with 87 % of the area demonstrating “reasonable performance” efficiency. The 6-month SPI projection from 2021 to 2050 indicated positive trends in 84 % of the area. Indeed, the relative percentage difference between projected and baseline trends compellingly suggests a decrease in seasonal rains by 2050, intensifying the demand on vegetation and introducing additional climate challenges.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 农林科学-林学

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

9.70%

发文量

415

审稿时长

69 days

期刊介绍： Agricultural and Forest Meteorology is an international journal for the publication of original articles and reviews on the inter-relationship between meteorology, agriculture, forestry, and natural ecosystems. Emphasis is on basic and applied scientific research relevant to practical problems in the field of plant and soil sciences, ecology and biogeochemistry as affected by weather as well as climate variability and change. Theoretical models should be tested against experimental data. Articles must appeal to an international audience. Special issues devoted to single topics are also published. Typical topics include canopy micrometeorology (e.g. canopy radiation transfer, turbulence near the ground, evapotranspiration, energy balance, fluxes of trace gases), micrometeorological instrumentation (e.g., sensors for trace gases, flux measurement instruments, radiation measurement techniques), aerobiology (e.g. the dispersion of pollen, spores, insects and pesticides), biometeorology (e.g. the effect of weather and climate on plant distribution, crop yield, water-use efficiency, and plant phenology), forest-fire/weather interactions, and feedbacks from vegetation to weather and the climate system.