确定实施非药物干预措施的最佳数学模型。

IF 2.6 4区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics
Gabriel McCarthy, Hana M Dobrovolny
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在2020年初SARS-CoV-2大流行开始时,只有非药物干预措施(npi)可用于阻止感染的传播。美国早期的许多干预措施都是在州一级实施的,其严格程度和遵守程度各不相同。虽然国家行动计划明显减缓了传播速度,但尚不清楚如何最好地将这些变化纳入流行病学模型。为了描述早期预防措施的效果,我们使用易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)模型和美国各州的累积病例数来分析封锁措施的效果。我们测试了四种转换模型来模拟传输速率的变化:瞬时、线性、指数和对数。我们发现,在这里检验的四个模型中,指数转换最能代表在大多数状态下由于实施npi而导致的传输速率变化,其次是逻辑转换模型。瞬时和线性模型通常会导致较差的拟合,并且是最少状态的最佳过渡模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Determining the best mathematical model for implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

At the onset of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, only non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were available to stem the spread of the infection. Much of the early interventions in the US were applied at a state level, with varying levels of strictness and compliance. While NPIs clearly slowed the rate of transmission, it is not clear how these changes are best incorporated into epidemiological models. In order to characterize the effects of early preventative measures, we use a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model and cumulative case counts from US states to analyze the effect of lockdown measures. We test four transition models to simulate the change in transmission rate: instantaneous, linear, exponential, and logarithmic. We find that of the four models examined here, the exponential transition best represents the change in the transmission rate due to implementation of NPIs in the most states, followed by the logistic transition model. The instantaneous and linear models generally lead to poor fits and are the best transition models for the fewest states.

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来源期刊
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 工程技术-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
7.70%
发文量
586
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering (MBE) is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal promoting cutting-edge research, technology transfer and knowledge translation about complex data and information processing. MBE publishes Research articles (long and original research); Communications (short and novel research); Expository papers; Technology Transfer and Knowledge Translation reports (description of new technologies and products); Announcements and Industrial Progress and News (announcements and even advertisement, including major conferences).
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