有限资源下交通出行与疾病传播的协同进化模型。

IF 3.9 2区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Zhanhao Liang, Kadyrkulova Kyial Kudayberdievna, Guijun Wu, Zhantu Liang, Batyrkanov Jenish Isakunovich, Wei Xiong, Wei Meng, Yukai Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在资源限制下,交通流动与疾病传播的协同进化机制尚不清楚。本研究提出了一个整合易感-感染-易感(SIS)流行病框架的双层交通网络模型来解决这一空白。该模型结合了医疗资源总量、网络间感染延迟、出行意愿和网络拓扑等关键因素。通过模拟,我们证明了增加医疗资源可以显著降低疫情期间的感染规模,而延长网络间延迟会减慢传播速率,但会延长疫情的持续时间。复杂的网络拓扑放大了出行行为对疾病传播的影响,而多因素干预(如联合资源分配和延迟延长)在抑制传播方面优于单因素控制。此外,减少网络连通性(降低平均程度)对缓解疫情是有效的,尤其是在出行意愿较低的情况下。这些发现突出表明,有必要采取协调一致的政策,利用资源优化、出行监管和网络简化来管理流行病。这项工作为决策者在依赖交通的社会中设计有效的流行病控制战略提供了可行的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Co-evolution model of traffic travel and disease transmission under limited resources.

Co-evolution model of traffic travel and disease transmission under limited resources.

Co-evolution model of traffic travel and disease transmission under limited resources.

Co-evolution model of traffic travel and disease transmission under limited resources.

The co-evolution mechanisms between traffic mobility and disease transmission under resource constraints remain poorly understood. This study proposes a two-layer transportation network model integrating the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic framework to address this gap. The model incorporates critical factors such as total medical resources, inter-network infection delays, travel willingness, and network topology. Through simulations, we demonstrate that increasing medical resources significantly reduces infection scale during outbreaks, while prolonging inter-network delays slows transmission rates but extends epidemic persistence. Complex network topologies amplify the impact of travel behavior on disease spread, and multi-factor interventions (e.g., combined resource allocation and delay extension) outperform single-factor controls in suppressing transmission. Furthermore, reducing network connectivity (lower average degree) proves effective in mitigating outbreaks, especially under low travel willingness. These findings highlight the necessity of coordinated policies that leverage resource optimization, travel regulation, and network simplification to manage epidemics. This work provides actionable insights for policymakers to design efficient epidemic control strategies in transportation-dependent societies.

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来源期刊
Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports Natural Science Disciplines-
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
4.30%
发文量
19567
审稿时长
3.9 months
期刊介绍: We publish original research from all areas of the natural sciences, psychology, medicine and engineering. You can learn more about what we publish by browsing our specific scientific subject areas below or explore Scientific Reports by browsing all articles and collections. Scientific Reports has a 2-year impact factor: 4.380 (2021), and is the 6th most-cited journal in the world, with more than 540,000 citations in 2020 (Clarivate Analytics, 2021). •Engineering Engineering covers all aspects of engineering, technology, and applied science. It plays a crucial role in the development of technologies to address some of the world''s biggest challenges, helping to save lives and improve the way we live. •Physical sciences Physical sciences are those academic disciplines that aim to uncover the underlying laws of nature — often written in the language of mathematics. It is a collective term for areas of study including astronomy, chemistry, materials science and physics. •Earth and environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences cover all aspects of Earth and planetary science and broadly encompass solid Earth processes, surface and atmospheric dynamics, Earth system history, climate and climate change, marine and freshwater systems, and ecology. It also considers the interactions between humans and these systems. •Biological sciences Biological sciences encompass all the divisions of natural sciences examining various aspects of vital processes. The concept includes anatomy, physiology, cell biology, biochemistry and biophysics, and covers all organisms from microorganisms, animals to plants. •Health sciences The health sciences study health, disease and healthcare. This field of study aims to develop knowledge, interventions and technology for use in healthcare to improve the treatment of patients.
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