{"title":"在物种丰富度的宏观生态模型中使用范围图的危险","authors":"Anna Thonis, H. Resit Akçakaya","doi":"10.1111/jbi.15072","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Aim</h3>\n \n <p>As range maps do not imply the continuous presence of species across their extents—and are commonly developed with species conservation in mind—their underlying assumptions unsurprisingly lead to richness overpredictions for a given area. Despite this expectation, species richness extracted from overlapping species range maps continues to be used in macroecological models (MEMs) of species richness. In this paper, we demonstrate the various implications of using range map richness in MEMs.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Location</h3>\n \n <p>Puerto Rico.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Taxon</h3>\n \n <p><i>Anolis</i> lizards.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>We used random forests to build two MEMs of Puerto Rico <i>Anolis</i> species richness: (a) using richness extracted from superimposed species range maps and (b) using biodiversity surveys conducted by the Puerto Rico non-profit, Para la Naturaleza. We then compare richness predictions, variable importance and evaluation metrics between the two models.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results and Main Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>We demonstrate how (1) using range map richness in MEMs results in richness overprediction, (2) variable importance taken from MEMs built with range map richness may be unreliable or indicative of variable importance at a coarser spatial scale and (3) correlation metrics used for evaluating MEMs are potentially misleading. Through this work, we shed light on the implications of using range map species richness in MEMs.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":15299,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biogeography","volume":"52 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jbi.15072","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Perils of Using Range Maps in Macroecological Models of Species Richness\",\"authors\":\"Anna Thonis, H. Resit Akçakaya\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jbi.15072\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Aim</h3>\\n \\n <p>As range maps do not imply the continuous presence of species across their extents—and are commonly developed with species conservation in mind—their underlying assumptions unsurprisingly lead to richness overpredictions for a given area. 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We then compare richness predictions, variable importance and evaluation metrics between the two models.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results and Main Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>We demonstrate how (1) using range map richness in MEMs results in richness overprediction, (2) variable importance taken from MEMs built with range map richness may be unreliable or indicative of variable importance at a coarser spatial scale and (3) correlation metrics used for evaluating MEMs are potentially misleading. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
由于范围图并不意味着物种在其范围内的持续存在,而且通常是在考虑到物种保护的情况下开发的,因此其潜在的假设不出所料会导致对给定区域的丰富程度的过度预测。尽管存在这样的期望,但从重叠物种范围图中提取的物种丰富度仍然用于物种丰富度的宏观生态模型(MEMs)。在本文中,我们展示了在MEMs中使用范围图丰富度的各种含义。地点:波多黎各。蜥蜴分类群。方法利用随机森林构建波多黎各Anolis物种丰富度的两个MEMs模型:(a)利用从叠加物种范围图中提取的丰富度,(b)利用波多黎各非营利组织Para la Naturaleza进行的生物多样性调查。然后,我们比较了两种模型之间的丰富度预测、变量重要性和评估指标。我们证明了(1)在MEMs中使用范围图丰富度会导致丰富度的过度预测;(2)从范围图丰富度构建的MEMs中获取的变量重要性可能不可靠,或者在更大的空间尺度上指示变量重要性;(3)用于评估MEMs的相关指标可能具有误导性。通过这项工作,我们阐明了在MEMs中使用范围图物种丰富度的意义。
Perils of Using Range Maps in Macroecological Models of Species Richness
Aim
As range maps do not imply the continuous presence of species across their extents—and are commonly developed with species conservation in mind—their underlying assumptions unsurprisingly lead to richness overpredictions for a given area. Despite this expectation, species richness extracted from overlapping species range maps continues to be used in macroecological models (MEMs) of species richness. In this paper, we demonstrate the various implications of using range map richness in MEMs.
Location
Puerto Rico.
Taxon
Anolis lizards.
Methods
We used random forests to build two MEMs of Puerto Rico Anolis species richness: (a) using richness extracted from superimposed species range maps and (b) using biodiversity surveys conducted by the Puerto Rico non-profit, Para la Naturaleza. We then compare richness predictions, variable importance and evaluation metrics between the two models.
Results and Main Conclusions
We demonstrate how (1) using range map richness in MEMs results in richness overprediction, (2) variable importance taken from MEMs built with range map richness may be unreliable or indicative of variable importance at a coarser spatial scale and (3) correlation metrics used for evaluating MEMs are potentially misleading. Through this work, we shed light on the implications of using range map species richness in MEMs.
期刊介绍:
Papers dealing with all aspects of spatial, ecological and historical biogeography are considered for publication in Journal of Biogeography. The mission of the journal is to contribute to the growth and societal relevance of the discipline of biogeography through its role in the dissemination of biogeographical research.