Ecological modeling of climate change effects on priority species of the Liliaceae family in Iran

Native plant species with high ornamental potential comprise crucial vegetation in any region. Understanding how climate change affects the distribution of these species is essential for their conservation management. The present study aimed to predict the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of priority species of two beautiful genera from the Liliaceae family: Tulipa (8 spp) and Fritillaria (12 spp) in Iran. The ecological niche of the studied species was modeled using 18 and 14 predictor variables for Fritillaria and Tulipa species, respectively, and the presence-only method and MaxEnt modeling under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios for the 2050s and 2080s. The results showed that the model performance was excellent or good for each species, with an Area-Under-Curve value of ≥ 0.8. The permutation feature importance results indicated that the distribution of Fritillaria species is mainly influenced by seasonal precipitation, annual temperature range, annual mean temperature, sand content, depth to bedrock, and elevation. Isothermality, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and elevation were the most critical environmental factors in predicting Tulipa spp. distribution. The reduction and expansion varied among the species studied, resulting in positive range changes for some species (2 Tulipa species and 5 Fritillaria species) and negative range changes for others. Additionally, some species, including T. montana and F. olivieri, displayed both positive and negative range changes under different scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s. These findings provide valuable insights for decision-makers involved in the conservation and management of these species.