准实验项目预登记与政策评估案例。

IF 3 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Thomas S Dee
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引用次数: 0

摘要

认识到研究者的自由裁量权加上无意识的偏见和动机推理有时会导致错误的发现(“p黑客”),导致研究预注册和其他开放科学实践在实验研究中的广泛接受。矛盾的是,准实验研究的预登记仍然不常见,尽管这类研究涉及更多的自由裁量决定,并且是社会科学中提出因果关系主张的最普遍方法。我讨论了最近几种形式的经验证据,表明有问题的研究实践导致了准实验研究的相对不可靠性,并提倡采用这种研究的预登记。本建议的实施将受益于对关键设计细节的进一步考虑(例如,如何平衡数据清理与可信的预注册),以及研究规范的转变,以允许在预先指定的、确认的结果和其他探索性发现之间进行适当的细微差别的意义理解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Case for Preregistering Quasi-Experimental Program and Policy Evaluations.

The recognition that researcher discretion coupled with unconscious biases and motivated reasoning sometimes leads to false findings ("p-hacking") led to the broad embrace of study preregistration and other open-science practices in experimental research. Paradoxically, the preregistration of quasi-experimental studies remains uncommon although such studies involve far more discretionary decisions and are the most prevalent approach to making causal claims in the social sciences. I discuss several forms of recent empirical evidence indicating that questionable research practices contribute to the comparative unreliability of quasi-experimental research and advocate for adopting the preregistration of such studies. The implementation of this recommendation would benefit from further consideration of key design details (e.g., how to balance data cleaning with credible preregistration) and a shift in research norms to allow for appropriately nuanced sensemaking across prespecified, confirmatory results and other exploratory findings.

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来源期刊
Evaluation Review
Evaluation Review SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
2.90
自引率
11.10%
发文量
80
期刊介绍: Evaluation Review is the forum for researchers, planners, and policy makers engaged in the development, implementation, and utilization of studies aimed at the betterment of the human condition. The Editors invite submission of papers reporting the findings of evaluation studies in such fields as child development, health, education, income security, manpower, mental health, criminal justice, and the physical and social environments. In addition, Evaluation Review will contain articles on methodological developments, discussions of the state of the art, and commentaries on issues related to the application of research results. Special features will include periodic review essays, "research briefs", and "craft reports".
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