Spatial Distribution of Carbon Emissions and Synergistic Evidence for Achieving Climate-Friendly Development in Underdeveloped Area of China

Development is generally accompanied by increases in emissions. While numerous studies have examined the dilemma between development and emissions, the question of how areas with different development levels can achieve economic growth while reducing emissions remains a complex challenge. This issue complicates the formulation of synergistic Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in designated management areas. To address this, our study identifies the development factors that have a strong indirect effect on emissions in the extremely underdeveloped area of China using the PLS-SEM model method. Furthermore, the study provides threshold results for the synergistic effects of development and emission reduction in underdeveloped areas with differing development levels, based on piecewise linear regression analysis. Our findings show that development processes in underdeveloped areas resulted in significant carbon (C) emissions between 2005 and 2020, ranging from 1,790.34 t to 2,801.33 t. In mildly, generally, and relatively underdeveloped areas, it is possible to achieve synergy between development and emission reduction when the response thresholds for emissions with respect to the proportion of construction land, energy consumption per GDP, and total retail sales of consumer goods are within the ranges of 0.183–0.205, below 0.287 t, and 74.63–89.10 billion yuan, respectively. However, in severely underdeveloped areas, no threshold was identified for the application of agricultural chemical fertilizers that would lead to emission reductions. Ultimately, this study offers decision-makers a range of thresholds to guide management strategies and the development of synergistic policies aimed at mitigating climate change while promoting sustainable development.