供应冲击是全球通胀的关键驱动因素吗?来自CPI和GDP平减指数分析的证据

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Noura Abu Asab
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究调查了2014年至2023年间20个发达经济体和新兴经济体的CPI通胀和GDP平减指数衡量的通胀主要驱动因素。利用主成分分析和面板向量自回归,研究考察了供给侧冲击、财政和货币指标以及贸易开放的作用。研究结果表明,供给侧因素,特别是食品和石油价格冲击以及供应链中断,是CPI和GDP平减指数通胀的主要因素。财政和货币因素表现出有限的短期影响,而贸易开放随着时间的推移而变得重要,特别是对于GDP平减指数,反映了其更广泛的经济影响。方差分解揭示了供给侧因素的持续影响,而贸易开放对通胀的长期驱动作用越来越显著。这些发现提供了对通胀动态的全面理解,强调需要制定有针对性的政策和合作干预措施,以减轻外部冲击,加强财政和货币框架,增强全球贸易抵御能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Are supply shocks a key driver of global Inflation? Evidence from CPI and GDP deflator analysis
This study investigates the main drivers of inflation measured by CPI inflation and GDP deflator across 20 advanced and emerging economies over the yearly span from 2014 to 2023. Using Principal Component Analysis and Panel Vector Autoregression, the research examines the roles of supply-side shocks, fiscal and monetary indicators, and trade openness. The findings indicate that supply-side factors, particularly food and oil price shocks as well as supply chain disruptions, are the primary contributors to both CPI and GDP deflator inflation. Fiscal and monetary factors exhibit limited short-term effect, while trade openness gains significance over time, especially for the GDP deflator, reflecting its broader economic impact. Variance decomposition reveals the persistent influence of supply-side factors, while trade openness plays an increasingly significant role in driving inflation in the long run. These findings provide a comprehensive understanding of inflation dynamics, emphasizing the need for tailored policy and cooperated interventions to mitigate external shocks, strengthen fiscal and monetary frameworks, and enhance global trade resilience.
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来源期刊
Research in Globalization
Research in Globalization Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
31
审稿时长
79 days
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