{"title":"达摩克利斯效应：法官可能会将缓刑期限延长50%以上","authors":"Andrzej Uhl","doi":"10.1007/s11292-025-09669-6","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Objective</h3><p>Legal scholars suspect that judges choose longer prison terms when they are going to suspend the sentence. This study examines this so-called sentence inflation in a controlled condition, holding case-related confounds constant.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>I analyze the differences between suspended and unsuspended prison terms in the data from the Polish judicial exam. Each judge (<i>N</i> = 232) sentenced the same case based on a detailed court file. Judges had high stakes in the exam and spent over 6 h choosing and justifying the sentence.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>Many judges sentenced the offenders to prison. The suspended prison terms were 60 to 168% longer than unsuspended prison terms meted out in the identical case.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusions</h3><p>Judges display a tendency to inflate suspended prison terms, perhaps in order to appease the punitive public and strengthen individual deterrence. With high reoffending rates, this well-intentioned practice might backfire, leading to a surge in the prison population.</p>","PeriodicalId":47684,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Experimental Criminology","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Damocles effect: judges may inflate the duration of suspended prison terms by over 50%\",\"authors\":\"Andrzej Uhl\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11292-025-09669-6\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Objective</h3><p>Legal scholars suspect that judges choose longer prison terms when they are going to suspend the sentence. This study examines this so-called sentence inflation in a controlled condition, holding case-related confounds constant.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Methods</h3><p>I analyze the differences between suspended and unsuspended prison terms in the data from the Polish judicial exam. Each judge (<i>N</i> = 232) sentenced the same case based on a detailed court file. Judges had high stakes in the exam and spent over 6 h choosing and justifying the sentence.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Results</h3><p>Many judges sentenced the offenders to prison. The suspended prison terms were 60 to 168% longer than unsuspended prison terms meted out in the identical case.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Conclusions</h3><p>Judges display a tendency to inflate suspended prison terms, perhaps in order to appease the punitive public and strengthen individual deterrence. With high reoffending rates, this well-intentioned practice might backfire, leading to a surge in the prison population.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47684,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Experimental Criminology\",\"volume\":\"21 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Experimental Criminology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-025-09669-6\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Experimental Criminology","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-025-09669-6","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Damocles effect: judges may inflate the duration of suspended prison terms by over 50%
Objective
Legal scholars suspect that judges choose longer prison terms when they are going to suspend the sentence. This study examines this so-called sentence inflation in a controlled condition, holding case-related confounds constant.
Methods
I analyze the differences between suspended and unsuspended prison terms in the data from the Polish judicial exam. Each judge (N = 232) sentenced the same case based on a detailed court file. Judges had high stakes in the exam and spent over 6 h choosing and justifying the sentence.
Results
Many judges sentenced the offenders to prison. The suspended prison terms were 60 to 168% longer than unsuspended prison terms meted out in the identical case.
Conclusions
Judges display a tendency to inflate suspended prison terms, perhaps in order to appease the punitive public and strengthen individual deterrence. With high reoffending rates, this well-intentioned practice might backfire, leading to a surge in the prison population.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Experimental Criminology focuses on high quality experimental and quasi-experimental research in the advancement of criminological theory and/or the development of evidence based crime and justice policy. The journal is also committed to the advancement of the science of systematic reviews and experimental methods in criminology and criminal justice. The journal seeks empirical papers on experimental and quasi-experimental studies, systematic reviews on substantive criminological and criminal justice issues, and methodological papers on experimentation and systematic review. The journal encourages submissions from scholars in the broad array of scientific disciplines that are concerned with criminology as well as crime and justice problems.
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