农业生态转型对肉类行业的影响:一种基于代理的建模方法应用于法国畜牧业

IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY
M. Schiavo, P. M. Aubert, C. Le Mouël
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引用次数: 0

摘要

考察欧洲农业生态转型蔓延的情景一致认为,减少牲畜数量和改善作物和牲畜区之间的协同作用是遏制温室气体排放和增加农田生物多样性的根本。本研究采用基于代理的模型来调查法国重大农业生态转型的影响,这将导致生产减少和牲畜迁移到法国西部以外的地区。目的是确定这种转变对肉类行业内竞争动态的影响。目前占据市场主导地位的法国西部大型肉类加工商,由于运输成本较高,只会加工一小部分将被重新安置的牲畜。它们的市场数量和份额的减少将导致这些加工商的利润减少,一些加工商可能会因为高昂的固定成本而倒闭。在经济机会的推动下,中小型加工商将进入法国北部、东部和南部的市场。在所有情况下,小型劳动密集型企业的产量增加并不能抵消生产减少对失业的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Agroecological Transition on the Meat Industry: An Agent‐Based Modelling Approach Applied to the French Livestock Sector
Scenarios examining the spread of agroecological transition in Europe concur that reducing livestock numbers and improving the synergies between crop and livestock areas are fundamental to curbing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing farmland biodiversity. This study employs an agent‐based model to investigate the influence of a significant agroecological transition in France, which would entail a reduction in production and relocation of livestock to regions outside western France. The objective is to ascertain the impact of such a transition on the competitive dynamics within the meat industry. The large meat processors in western France, which currently dominate the market, would only process a small fraction of the livestock that would be relocated, due to higher transport costs. Their reduced market volume and share would lead to reduced profits for these processors, with some potentially going out of business because of high fixed costs. Driven by economic opportunities, small and medium‐sized processors would enter the market and locate in northern, eastern and southern France. In all scenarios, increased production by small labour‐intensive firms does not offset the impact of reduced production on job losses.
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来源期刊
Journal of Agricultural Economics
Journal of Agricultural Economics 管理科学-农业经济与政策
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
2.90%
发文量
48
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Agricultural Economics Society, the Journal of Agricultural Economics is a leading international professional journal, providing a forum for research into agricultural economics and related disciplines such as statistics, marketing, business management, politics, history and sociology, and their application to issues in the agricultural, food, and related industries; rural communities, and the environment. Each issue of the JAE contains articles, notes and book reviews as well as information relating to the Agricultural Economics Society. Published 3 times a year, it is received by members and institutional subscribers in 69 countries. With contributions from leading international scholars, the JAE is a leading citation for agricultural economics and policy. Published articles either deal with new developments in research and methods of analysis, or apply existing methods and techniques to new problems and situations which are of general interest to the Journal’s international readership.
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