巴西RenovaBio计划的市场效应、温室气体减排和成本

IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY
Jong‐Ik Kim, Wyatt Thompson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

巴西的RenovaBio项目旨在减少交通部门的温室气体(GHG)排放。该计划设定了不断下降的碳排放限制,燃料生产商使用可交易的脱碳信用额(CBIOs)来满足这一限制。该方案在生物质产品市场和生物能源市场之间建立了一个新的联系系统,具有生产者和消费者的影响,可以使用适当的前瞻性经济方法进行评估。我们使用结构模型对CBIO和燃料市场进行建模,以模拟RenovaBio的影响。我们将该模型与广泛使用的农业和农业市场模型联系起来,以分析作物和作物产品的相互作用。如果按照宣布的那样实施,该计划将扩大生物燃料消费和原料价格,同时减少石油产品的使用。我们的估计强调了潜在的巨大影响,类似于美国生物燃料使用指令的影响,受制于减排目标如何演变和行业如何应对的不确定性。在一个主要的生物燃料和农业商品生产国和用户实施这类方案会影响全球农业和粮食系统,因为巴西对世界市场的供应减少,而世界范围内乙醇和生物燃料原料的价格上涨,这取决于该方案的执行方式。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Market Effects, Greenhouse Gas Reductions and Costs of Brazil's RenovaBio Programme
Brazil's RenovaBio programme aims to reduce transportation sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The programme sets falling carbon emission limits that fuel producers meet using tradable decarbonisation credits (CBIOs). This programme creates a system of new links between biomass product markets and bioenergy markets, with producer and consumer implications, that can be assessed using appropriate forward‐looking economic methods. We model the CBIO and fuel markets using a structural model to simulate the impacts of RenovaBio. We link this model to a widely used model of agricultural and agricultural markets to analyse crop and crop product interactions. If implemented as announced, the programme would expand biofuel consumption and feedstock prices while decreasing petroleum product use. Our estimates highlight the potential for large impacts, similar by some measures to the impacts of US biofuel use mandates, subject to uncertainty about how the reduction targets evolve and how the industry responds. A programme of this type in a major biofuel and agricultural commodity producer and user affects global agricultural and food systems, as Brazil's supply to the world market diminishes and prices of ethanol and biofuel feedstocks worldwide are increased, depending on how the programme is implemented.
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来源期刊
Journal of Agricultural Economics
Journal of Agricultural Economics 管理科学-农业经济与政策
CiteScore
7.90
自引率
2.90%
发文量
48
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Agricultural Economics Society, the Journal of Agricultural Economics is a leading international professional journal, providing a forum for research into agricultural economics and related disciplines such as statistics, marketing, business management, politics, history and sociology, and their application to issues in the agricultural, food, and related industries; rural communities, and the environment. Each issue of the JAE contains articles, notes and book reviews as well as information relating to the Agricultural Economics Society. Published 3 times a year, it is received by members and institutional subscribers in 69 countries. With contributions from leading international scholars, the JAE is a leading citation for agricultural economics and policy. Published articles either deal with new developments in research and methods of analysis, or apply existing methods and techniques to new problems and situations which are of general interest to the Journal’s international readership.
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