Bernhard Schütz , Oliver Reiter , Michael Landesmann , Branimir Jovanović
{"title":"与 Covid-19 有关的结构变化、收入分配和失业:基于代理的模型","authors":"Bernhard Schütz , Oliver Reiter , Michael Landesmann , Branimir Jovanović","doi":"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.02.013","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the distributional consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic within the framework of a stock-flow consistent agent-based model that captures some of the aspects of pandemic-related lockdowns. The model distinguishes between ‘essential’ and ‘non-essential’ industries, between jobs that can be done from home and jobs that must be carried out on site. We find that the pandemic leads to a significant increase in inequality, mostly driven by market concentration and firms raising mark-ups in the aftermath of the pandemic, contributing to higher prices and a rising profit share. Government-financed short-time working schemes and loan guarantees reduce the rise in firm liquidations and income inequality (the ‘Keynesian’ result). However, we also find that the absence of government policies leads to higher levels of productivity and GDP in the aftermath of the crisis, as it means that more of the less productive firms face liquidation during lockdowns (the ‘Schumpeterian’ result).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47829,"journal":{"name":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","volume":"74 ","pages":"Pages 61-84"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Structural change, income distribution and unemployment related to Covid-19: An agent-based model\",\"authors\":\"Bernhard Schütz , Oliver Reiter , Michael Landesmann , Branimir Jovanović\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.strueco.2025.02.013\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>We study the distributional consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic within the framework of a stock-flow consistent agent-based model that captures some of the aspects of pandemic-related lockdowns. The model distinguishes between ‘essential’ and ‘non-essential’ industries, between jobs that can be done from home and jobs that must be carried out on site. We find that the pandemic leads to a significant increase in inequality, mostly driven by market concentration and firms raising mark-ups in the aftermath of the pandemic, contributing to higher prices and a rising profit share. Government-financed short-time working schemes and loan guarantees reduce the rise in firm liquidations and income inequality (the ‘Keynesian’ result). However, we also find that the absence of government policies leads to higher levels of productivity and GDP in the aftermath of the crisis, as it means that more of the less productive firms face liquidation during lockdowns (the ‘Schumpeterian’ result).</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47829,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics\",\"volume\":\"74 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 61-84\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-02-26\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X25000293\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Structural Change and Economic Dynamics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X25000293","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Structural change, income distribution and unemployment related to Covid-19: An agent-based model
We study the distributional consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic within the framework of a stock-flow consistent agent-based model that captures some of the aspects of pandemic-related lockdowns. The model distinguishes between ‘essential’ and ‘non-essential’ industries, between jobs that can be done from home and jobs that must be carried out on site. We find that the pandemic leads to a significant increase in inequality, mostly driven by market concentration and firms raising mark-ups in the aftermath of the pandemic, contributing to higher prices and a rising profit share. Government-financed short-time working schemes and loan guarantees reduce the rise in firm liquidations and income inequality (the ‘Keynesian’ result). However, we also find that the absence of government policies leads to higher levels of productivity and GDP in the aftermath of the crisis, as it means that more of the less productive firms face liquidation during lockdowns (the ‘Schumpeterian’ result).
期刊介绍:
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics publishes articles about theoretical, applied and methodological aspects of structural change in economic systems. The journal publishes work analysing dynamics and structural breaks in economic, technological, behavioural and institutional patterns.