日本经济衰退和复苏期间的区域就业：数据驱动的方法

IF 2.9 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI:10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101917

Yusuke Adachi , Hikaru Ogawa , Masafumi Tsubuku

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究使用因果森林算法调查了经济冲击对日本区域就业的影响，并将数据驱动的结果与标准普通最小二乘（OLS）回归的估计结果进行了比较。我们的研究结果显示，小区域和大区域之间的影响程度没有显著差异。相反，影响的地区差异源于危机前就业增长和当地就业集中度的差异。具体来说，制造业就业占比高的地区对衰退相关的失业表现出弹性，但复苏缓慢，而危机前就业增长超过5%的地区在衰退期间就业增长急剧下降，但复苏强劲。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Regional employment during recessions and recoveries in Japan: A data-driven approach

This study investigates the impact of economic shocks on regional employment in Japan using causal forest algorithms and compares the data-driven findings with estimates derived from standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Our results reveal no significant difference in the magnitude of impact between small and large regions. Instead, regional differences in impact stem from variations in pre-crisis employment growth and the concentration of local employment. Specifically, regions with a high proportion of manufacturing jobs demonstrate resilience to recession-related job losses but recover slowly, while regions with pre-crisis employment growth exceeding 5% suffer steep declines during recessions but exhibit strong recoveries.

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来源期刊

Journal of Asian Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

4.70

自引率

9.40%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Asian Economics provides a forum for publication of increasingly growing research in Asian economic studies and a unique forum for continental Asian economic studies with focus on (i) special studies in adaptive innovation paradigms in Asian economic regimes, (ii) studies relative to unique dimensions of Asian economic development paradigm, as they are investigated by researchers, (iii) comparative studies of development paradigms in other developing continents, Latin America and Africa, (iv) the emerging new pattern of comparative advantages between Asian countries and the United States and North America.