Household acceptance of solar water heaters in South Africa: An expectancy-disconfirmation model

South Africa's energy development policy promotes adopting household solar energy as one of the key solutions to the current energy crisis and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from coal-generated electricity. However, the success of government-led solar energy adoption is strongly dependent on being socially accepted by the end users at the household level. In this study, we aimed to investigate the determinants of solar water heaters (SWH) acceptance to promote long-term adoption. We used questionnaires to collect data from 86 households that received SWHs as part of the government-led SWH programme in the township of Pimville in Soweto, South Africa. We then fitted two structural equation models to test socioeconomic and behavioural drivers of acceptance in line with the expectancy-disconfirmation model. Results show that SWH acceptance is strongly and negatively associated with user expectations. Furthermore, electricity savings from SWHs are positively associated with the education level of the users, hinting at the possibility of a rebound effect. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of the SWH programme is strongly dependent on meeting end-user expectations, regardless of its intended benefits. The significance of these findings lies in appreciating the importance of managing end-user expectations to enhance the acceptance and adoption of SWHs.