Elicitation and verification of learning via experts (EVOLVE) for creating a theoretical framework for active shooter incidents

Active Shooter Incidents (ASIs) pose significant threats to public safety, especially within educational facilities. Unlike fire safety regulations, current guidelines for ASIs lack specific recommendations. Thus, this study seeks to develop a theoretical framework for ASIs by examining factors influencing civilian behaviors, categorizing response behaviors, and identifying essential needs for building safety and emergency management. Employing the elicitation and verification of learning via experts (EVOLVE) method, we engaged experts through surveys, videos, prioritization exercises, and focus groups. We identified five categories of influencing factors: individual-related, building-related, situation-related, security-related, and shooter-related factors, and six civilian responses: running following a crowd, hiding in place, running then hiding, running independently, freezing, and fighting. Effective training and familiarity with building were found to be crucial for improving decisive actions and reducing passive behaviors. Experts emphasized the need for universal disaster response strategies, standardized training for first responders, and uniform civilian training in addition to understanding how various building design features enhance safety. Developing a risk assessment system and a simulation platform to enhance emergency management were also among the recommendations.