气候变化对中国樱桃(Prunus pseudocerasus Lindl.)适宜性的影响。

IF 8.1 Q1 HORTICULTURE
Zhengxin Lv, Songtao Jiu, Li Wang, Yan Xu, Jiyuan Wang, Xunju Liu, Jieming Xu, Yuxuan Wang, Muhammad Salman Haider, Ruie Liu, Caixi Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

桃李相关产业的快速发展为中国乡村振兴做出了越来越大的贡献。本研究利用151份伪杉树种质资源野生/本地样本的环境和物种发生数据,采用biood2集合模型,预测其潜在地理分布、适宜性变化、气候依赖和生态位动态。优化的最大熵(MaxEnt)模型产生了最准确的预测。对适宜性影响最大的气候变量是最暖季降水和平均日温差。随着CO2浓度的增加,杉木的总潜在适宜面积约为2.78 × 106 km2。高度适宜区主要集中在四川的盆地、高原和平原。现今利川的质心呈现逐渐的纵向和纵向运动。不同途径和不同时期的伪杉木生态位预测趋势不同,CO2浓度越高,生态位重叠越少。SSP246情景下的CO2排放浓度是最合适的气候模式。气候变化对伪杉木地理分布的扩大和重叠地理分布区域的缩小都有促进作用。研究结果为伪杉木的野生资源保护、生产选址和异种植物的引进提供了理论依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Climate change affects the suitability of Chinese cherry (Prunus pseudocerasus Lindl.) in China.

The rapid development of Prunus pseudocerasus related industry has increasingly contributed to rural vitalization in China. This study employed a biomod2 ensemble model, utilizing environmental and species occurrence data from 151 P. pseudocerasus germplasm wild/local samples, to predict potential geographical distribution, suitability changes, climate dependence, and ecological niche dynamics. The optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model yielded the most accurate predictions. The climate variables with the greatest impact on suitability were precipitation of warmest quarter and mean diurnal temperature range. The total potential suitable area for P. pseudocerasus was approximately 2.78 × 106 km2, increasing with CO2 concentration. The highly suitable area was primarily concentrated in basin terrains, plateaus, and plains of Sichuan Province. The current centroid in Lichuan exhibited gradual latitudinal and longitudinal movement. The predicted (2090s) ecological niche trends of P. pseudocerasus varied under different pathways and periods, with higher CO2 concentration associated with lower niche overlap. The CO2 emission concentration in the SSP246 scenario emerged as the most suitable climate model. Climate change is driving both the expansion of geographical distribution and the contraction of overlapping geographical distribution areas of P. pseudocerasus. These findings provide a theoretical basis for wild resource conservation, site selection for production, and introduction of allopatry for P. pseudocerasus.

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来源期刊
Molecular Horticulture
Molecular Horticulture horticultural research-
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Aims Molecular Horticulture aims to publish research and review articles that significantly advance our knowledge in understanding how the horticultural crops or their parts operate mechanistically. Articles should have profound impacts not only in terms of high citation number or the like, but more importantly on the direction of the horticultural research field. Scope Molecular Horticulture publishes original Research Articles, Letters, and Reviews on novel discoveries on the following, but not limited to, aspects of horticultural plants (including medicinal plants): ▪ Developmental and evolutionary biology ▪ Physiology, biochemistry and cell biology ▪ Plant-microbe and plant-environment interactions ▪ Genetics and epigenetics ▪ Molecular breeding and biotechnology ▪ Secondary metabolism and synthetic biology ▪ Multi-omics dealing with data sets of genome, transcriptome, proteome, metabolome, epigenome and/or microbiome. The journal also welcomes research articles using model plants that reveal mechanisms and/or principles readily applicable to horticultural plants, translational research articles involving application of basic knowledge (including those of model plants) to the horticultural crops, novel Methods and Resources of broad interest. In addition, the journal publishes Editorial, News and View, and Commentary and Perspective on current, significant events and topics in global horticultural fields with international interests.
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