Preventable cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Korea from 2015 to 2030.

Objectives: Tobacco smoking is a major public health concern worldwide. This study aimed to assess its impact on cancer incidence and mortality by estimating the population attributable fraction (PAF) in the Korean population for 2015 and 2020 and by projecting future trends until 2030.

Methods: The Korean relative risk (RR) was calculated via a meta-analysis of RRs for individual cancers attributed to tobacco smoking, based on primary data analysis from the Korean Cohort Consortium. The PAF was estimated using the Levin formula with past and current prevalence rates and the number of cancer cases and deaths, assuming a 15-year latency period.

Results: The proportions of cancer cases and deaths in Korea attributable to tobacco smoking were similar to those calculated using Asian and global RRs for both men and women. In 2015 and 2020, tobacco smoking contributed to 14.32% and 13.17% of cancer cases and 21.70% and 20.69% of cancer deaths in adults, respectively. Among Koreans, smoking was responsible for 25.83% of new cancer cases in men in 2015, 23.49% in men in 2020, 1.46% in women in 2015, and 1.68% in women in 2020. In both years, smoking impacted mortality more strongly than incidence in Korean men and women (incidence in men: 25.83% and 23.49%; mortality in men: 32.09% and 30.41%; incidence in women: 1.46% and 1.68%; and mortality in women: 4.70% and 4.96%, respectively).

Conclusion: Tobacco smoking causes cancers and deaths in Korea, however, it is preventable. Effective control policies that consider trends and vulnerabilities among women are required.