基于目标的GDP操纵：来自中国的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105349

Binlei Gong , Yuhui Shen , Shuai Chen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

GDP操纵是一种普遍存在的隐性行为，通常源于委托代理问题。利用一种创新的比率形式方法中的聚类估计，本研究识别并量化了基于目标的GDP操纵。我们的实证分析提供了中国地级市为实现预定目标而进行此类操纵的证据。然而，随着时间的推移，中国以目标为基础的GDP操纵正在减少。此外，研究结果表明，降低经济绩效在地方政府评估中的权重和采用软目标设定限制是近年来显著缓解中国GDP操纵的有效策略。

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Target-based GDP manipulation: Evidence from China

GDP manipulation is a prevalent form of hidden action, often arising from the principal-agent problem. Utilizing Bunching Estimation within an innovative ratio form approach, this study identifies and quantifies target-based GDP manipulation. Our empirical analysis offers evidence of such manipulation at the prefectural level in China to meet predetermined targets. However, China’s target-based GDP manipulation is diminishing over time. Furthermore, the findings suggest that reducing the weight of economic performance in local government assessments and adopting the soft target-setting restrictions have served as effective strategies to significantly mitigate China’s GDP manipulation in recent years.

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来源期刊

Journal of Public Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

14.10

自引率

2.00%

发文量

139

审稿时长

70 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Public Economics aims to promote original scientific research in the field of public economics, focusing on the utilization of contemporary economic theory and quantitative analysis methodologies. It serves as a platform for the international scholarly community to engage in discussions on public policy matters.