模拟陈述的可信度与真实效应之间的联系。

IF 3.2 3区 心理学 Q1 PSYCHOLOGY, EXPERIMENTAL
Semih C Aktepe, Daniel W Heck
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人们认为重复的陈述比新的更真实。当陈述模棱两可时,这种基于重复的真理效应是一种强有力的现象。然而,先前的研究提供了相互矛盾的证据,证明重复是否同样影响对可信和不可信陈述的真相判断。鉴于缺乏正式的理论来解释重复和真实性效应之间的相互作用,重要的是建立一个模型来指定关于这一现象的假设。在本研究中,我们提出了一个贝叶斯模型,该模型形式化了Fazio, Rand和Pennycook (2019;心理科学通报与评论)。该模型从二元真值判断的非线性变换出发,阐述了重复和可信性如何共同影响真值效应。我们通过计算四种相互竞争的模型变体的贝叶斯因子,对之前两项研究的实验数据进行了重新分析,从而测试了我们的模型。我们的研究结果表明,虽然在概率尺度上,模棱两可的真实效应通常比高度不可信或可信的陈述更大,但在概率尺度上,它可以同时对所有陈述保持不变。因此,重复和可信性之间的相互作用可以用重复在潜在概率尺度上的恒定加性效应来解释。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling the link between the plausibility of statements and the truth effect.

People judge repeated statements as more true than new ones. This repetition-based truth effect is a robust phenomenon when statements are ambiguous. However, previous studies provided conflicting evidence on whether repetition similarly affects truth judgments for plausible and implausible statements. Given the lack of a formal theory explaining the interaction between repetition and plausibility on the truth effect, it is important to develop a model specifying the assumptions regarding this phenomenon. In this study, we propose a Bayesian model that formalizes the simulation-based model by Fazio, Rand, and Pennycook (2019; Psychonomic Bulletin & Review). The model specifies how repetition and plausibility jointly influence the truth effect in light of nonlinear transformations of binary truth judgments. We test our model in a reanalysis of experimental data from two previous studies by computing Bayes factors for four competing model variants. Our findings indicate that, while the truth effect is usually larger for ambiguous than for highly implausible or plausible statements on the probability scale, it can simultaneously be constant for all statements on the probit scale. Hence, the interaction between repetition and plausibility may be explained by a constant additive effect of repetition on a latent probit scale.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.70
自引率
2.90%
发文量
165
期刊介绍: The journal provides coverage spanning a broad spectrum of topics in all areas of experimental psychology. The journal is primarily dedicated to the publication of theory and review articles and brief reports of outstanding experimental work. Areas of coverage include cognitive psychology broadly construed, including but not limited to action, perception, & attention, language, learning & memory, reasoning & decision making, and social cognition. We welcome submissions that approach these issues from a variety of perspectives such as behavioral measurements, comparative psychology, development, evolutionary psychology, genetics, neuroscience, and quantitative/computational modeling. We particularly encourage integrative research that crosses traditional content and methodological boundaries.
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