2011 - 2024年中国儿童虐待公众关注度及其社会经济影响因素：基于百度指数的信息流行病学分析

IF 3.4 2区心理学 Q1 FAMILY STUDIES

Child Abuse & Neglect Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI:10.1016/j.chiabu.2025.107352

Zekai Lu

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引用次数: 0

摘要

儿童虐待是影响儿童福祉的一个重大公共卫生问题。在中国，传统的文化信仰和社会因素导致了虐待案件的大量少报和低估。信息流行病学方法为研究这一隐藏的社会现象提供了新的视角。目的分析中国公众对儿童虐待关注的时间演变，探讨其社会经济影响因素，并预测未来趋势。我利用百度指数获得了2011年至2024年中国虐待儿童相关关键词的搜索量，然后将其与中国省级社会经济指标相结合。方法采用结构断点分析、STL分解和ARIMA模型分析时间模式并进行预测。采用标准化回归分析探讨社会经济因素与公众关注的关系。结果公众对虐待儿童的关注表现出快速增长（2011-2014年）、稳定（2014-2018年）、缓慢下降（2018-2022年）和加速下降（2022年至今）四个阶段。预测显示，未来两年该数字将继续下降。城镇化率(β = 0.59, p <；.001)和生育率(β = 0.36, p <；.001)与公众关注度呈显著正相关，而性别比例呈负相关(β= - 0.07, p <；措施)。明显的区域差异，东部地区持续保持较高的关注水平，而西部地区则明显下降。结论调查结果表明，中国公众对虐待儿童的关注目前处于下降周期，特别是在西部地区。时间和空间格局与社会发展水平和人口结构密切相关。需要建立一个更全面的公众关注监测系统。

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Public concern of child maltreatment in China from 2011 to 2024 and its socioeconomic determinants: An Infodemiology analysis using Baidu Index

Background

Child maltreatment represents a significant public health issue affecting children's well-being. In China, traditional cultural beliefs and social factors contribute to substantial underreporting and underestimation of maltreatment cases. Infodemiological approaches offer new perspectives for examining this hidden social phenomenon.

Objectives

This study aims to analyze the temporal evolution of public concern about child maltreatment in China, examine its socioeconomic determinants, and forecast future trends.

Materials

I utilized the Baidu Index to obtain search volumes for child maltreatment-related keywords from 2011 to 2024, which were then integrated with provincial-level socioeconomic indicators across China.

Methods

Structural breakpoint analysis, STL decomposition and ARIMA modeling were employed to analyze temporal patterns and generate forecasts. Standardized regression analysis was used to explore the associations between socioeconomic factors and public concern.

Results

Public concern about child maltreatment exhibited four distinct phases: rapid increase (2011–2014), stable (2014–2018), slow decrease (2018–2022), and accelerated decrease (2022–present). Forecasts indicate a continuing decline next two years. Urbanization rate (

β

= 0.59, p < .001) and fertility rate (

β

= 0.36, p < .001) demonstrated significant positive associations with public concern, while sex ratio showed negative correlation (

β

= − 0.07, p < .001). Significant regional disparities were evident, with eastern regions maintaining consistently higher levels of concern while western regions showed a marked decline.

Conclusion

The findings reveal that public concern about child maltreatment in China is currently in a declining cycle, especially in western regions. The temporal and spatial pattern correlates closely with levels of social development and demographic structure. A more comprehensive public concern monitoring system needs to be established.

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来源期刊

Child Abuse & Neglect Multiple-

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

10.40%

发文量

397

期刊介绍： Official Publication of the International Society for Prevention of Child Abuse and Neglect. Child Abuse & Neglect The International Journal, provides an international, multidisciplinary forum on all aspects of child abuse and neglect, with special emphasis on prevention and treatment; the scope extends further to all those aspects of life which either favor or hinder child development. While contributions will primarily be from the fields of psychology, psychiatry, social work, medicine, nursing, law enforcement, legislature, education, and anthropology, the Journal encourages the concerned lay individual and child-oriented advocate organizations to contribute.