美国经济政策不确定性对新兴市场的溢出效应:来自跨国供应链的证据

IF 5.4 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE
Jieying Gao , Qi Qin , Shengjie Zhou
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究提供了跨国供应链在美国经济政策不确定性(EPU)向新兴市场跨境传递中的作用的实证证据。利用2003年至2022年间22个新兴经济体的数据,我们发现,与仅在当地市场运营的公司相比,美国的EPU显著增加了与美国供应链相关的公司的风险。驱动这种风险传递的关键机制是资金链(由贸易信贷衡量)和产品链(反映在库存周转率上)。横断面分析表明,处于政治敏感行业、融资受限的企业,以及那些在跨国供应链中参与度较高的企业,受到美国EPU的影响更为明显。我们还观察到对公司业绩其他方面的不利影响,包括营业收入和资产回报率。综上所述,这些发现突出了新兴市场积极管理美国EPU带来的溢出风险的必要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on emerging markets: Evidence from transnational supply chains
This study provides empirical evidence on the role of transnational supply chains in the cross-border transmission of US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) to emerging markets. Using data from 22 emerging economies between 2003 and 2022, we find that US EPU significantly increases the risk for firms connected to US supply chains, compared to those operating solely in local markets. The key mechanisms driving this risk transmission are the capital chain (measured by trade credit) and the product chain (reflected in inventory turnover). Cross-sectional analyses show that firms in politically sensitive industries, with constrained financing, and those with higher participation in transnational supply chains experience a more pronounced impact from US EPU. We also observe adverse effects on other aspects of firm performance, including operating income and return on assets. Together these findings highlight the need for emerging markets to actively manage spillover risks arising from US EPU.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
10.00%
发文量
142
期刊介绍: International trade, financing and investments, and the related cash and credit transactions, have grown at an extremely rapid pace in recent years. The international monetary system has continued to evolve to accommodate the need for foreign-currency denominated transactions and in the process has provided opportunities for its ongoing observation and study. The purpose of the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money is to publish rigorous, original articles dealing with the international aspects of financial markets, institutions and money. Theoretical/conceptual and empirical papers providing meaningful insights into the subject areas will be considered. The following topic areas, although not exhaustive, are representative of the coverage in this Journal. • International financial markets • International securities markets • Foreign exchange markets • Eurocurrency markets • International syndications • Term structures of Eurocurrency rates • Determination of exchange rates • Information, speculation and parity • Forward rates and swaps • International payment mechanisms • International commercial banking; • International investment banking • Central bank intervention • International monetary systems • Balance of payments.
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