Trend of HIV/AIDS disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021: An age-period-cohort model analysis.

Background: Understanding the burden of HIV/AIDS in China over the last few decades is vital for creating effective control strategies.

Methods: This study systematically retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, including information related to HIV/AIDS in China. It assessed the burden of HIV/AIDS using specific indicators and methods, such as incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the trends in disease burden, and age-period-cohort models were used to evaluate the effects of age, period and cohort.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of HIV/AIDS in China increased for the total population, as well as for males and females. The age-standardized incidence, mortality and DALY rates rose at average annual rates of 0.051, 0.056 and 2.629, respectively. Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that net drift values for incidence, mortality and DALY rates across all age groups were greater than 0 (p < 0.05), with local drifts peaking between the ages of 20 and 24. The risk of HIV/AIDS increased with age. Compared with the 2005-2009 reference period, overall, male and female incidence risks first increased and then decreased, while mortality and DALY risks continued to rise. Additionally, the risks for the 1945-1949 birth cohort also showed an increasing trend.

Conclusion: In conclusion, the overall HIV/AIDS burden in China grew from 1990 to 2021. To combat this, future efforts should focus on educating and preventing transmission among adolescents and the elderly.