A Copula-ECAC model for estimating aviation noise around airports

The European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC) noise estimation model is widely used for its simplicity and efficiency. However, its reliance on fixed thrust coefficients for thrust calculation limits the accuracy of noise estimation. This study presents an innovative Copula-ECAC model for estimating aviation noise around airports to address this limitation. The core of the proposed model lies in leveraging the Copula theory to construct joint distribution models of thrust coefficients for various aircraft types. By utilizing the robust capability of Copula functions to characterize dependency relationships, the model effectively captures and simulates the complex dynamic interactions between different thrust coefficients. Applied to Nanjing Lukou International Airport in China, the Copula-ECAC model demonstrates superior performance compared to mainstream ECAC models in terms of prediction accuracy and generalization ability. With a coefficient of determination consistently exceeding 0.90, the model’s reliability and practical value are fully validated.