Partnership trajectories toward childlessness in China

Objective

Drawing on the life course perspective, this study examined partnership trajectories of childless individuals to understand the drivers and processes of becoming childless in China.

Background

Despite the rise in childlessness in China, little is known about the within-group heterogeneity in partnership trajectories leading to childlessness and their sociodemographic correlates.

Method

The study employed sequence analysis and multinomial and ordinary least squares regressions using a sample of 778 childless men and women aged 40 and above from the China Family Panel Studies in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018.

Results

Five clusters of partnership trajectories were identified: never partnered (51.8%), early marriage (24.8%), late marriage (9.4%), on-time marriage (9.3%), and unpartnered via divorce or widowhood (4.9%). Men with low socioeconomic status were most likely to become childless through never being married, and their privileged counterparts were mostly through on-time or late marriage. The early-marriage and unpartnered clusters mostly consisted of women, and among women, those with an urban hukou or low education were more likely to be divorced. The overall heterogeneity in partnership trajectories to childlessness declined, and most complexity observed was limited to the unpartnered cluster.

Conclusion

Partnership trajectories to childlessness in China are heterogenous and stratified but increasingly homogenous.

Implications

Due to the persistent connections between marriage and childbearing, Chinese individuals become childless through more standardized life course trajectories than before.