{"title":"孟加拉国2019冠状病毒病期间的超额死亡率和死亡率预测：基于城市墓地死亡记录的分析","authors":"Ema Akter, Aniqa Tasnim Hossain, Bibek Ahamed, Md Hafizur Rahman, Tanvir Hossain Akm, Uchchash Barua, Md Shahidul Islam, Ridwana Maher Manna, Md Alamgir Hossain, Tasnu Ara, Nasimul Ghani Usmani, Pradip Chandra, Shafiqul Ameen, Sabrina Jabeen, Anisuddin Ahmed, Taufiq Zahidur Rahman, Mohammad Mamun-Ul-Hassan, Atiqul Islam, Beth Tippett Barr, Qazi Sadeq-Ur Rahman, Shams El Arifeen, Ahmed Ehsanur Rahman","doi":"10.7189/jogh.15.04050","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global mortality, underscoring the need for reliable data to guide public health policy. In low- and middle-income countries, graveyard-based death records can offer valuable insights into COVID-19-related mortality, yet they remain limited. Additionally, data on mortality beyond the pandemic remains scarce as we approach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. We addressed this gap by using graveyard-based data to assess excess mortality during the pandemic (2020-23) and predict mortality trends through 2030.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analysed 70 585 deaths from six graveyards in Dhaka, Bangladesh, from January 2001 to December 2023. The data was divided into pre-COVID-19 (2001-19), peak-COVID-19 (2020-21), and end-of-COVID-19 (2022-23) phases. We assessed the excess mortality using the P-score and Bayesian approach. We estimated excess mortality with a log-linear Bayesian model and predicted death trends for 2024-30, reporting incidence rate ratio (IRR) with 95% credible intervals (CrI).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Overall, excess mortality was 69% greater in 2020 and 31% in 2023 compared to the 2018-19 average. The IRR for deaths during peak-COVID-19 was 1.66 times higher than pre-COVID-19 (95% CrI = 1.35-2.04). Neonates had significantly higher IRRs during both the peak (IRR = 1.45; 95% CrI = 1.02-2.05) and end-of-COVID-19 (IRR = 1.67; 95% CrI = 1.02-2.71). Individuals aged >40 years showed a significantly higher IRR during peak-COVID-19 (IRR = 1.79; 95% CrI = 1.46-2.18). Predictions using data between 2001-23 indicate rising mortality, with the number of adult deaths increasing from 3318 in 2023 to 5089 (95% CrI = 3871-6267) by 2030.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>We revealed a significant rise in mortality during the pandemic, with elevated death rates persisting at the end of the pandemic. Predictions indicate continued mortality increases through 2030, underscoring the pandemic's long-term health impacts. While further research is needed, these findings highlight the value of graveyard-based death registration data for tracking mortality trends and informing public health strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48734,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Global Health","volume":"15 ","pages":"04050"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11869516/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Excess mortality during COVID-19 and prediction of mortality in Bangladesh: an analysis based on death records in urban graveyards.\",\"authors\":\"Ema Akter, Aniqa Tasnim Hossain, Bibek Ahamed, Md Hafizur Rahman, Tanvir Hossain Akm, Uchchash Barua, Md Shahidul Islam, Ridwana Maher Manna, Md Alamgir Hossain, Tasnu Ara, Nasimul Ghani Usmani, Pradip Chandra, Shafiqul Ameen, Sabrina Jabeen, Anisuddin Ahmed, Taufiq Zahidur Rahman, Mohammad Mamun-Ul-Hassan, Atiqul Islam, Beth Tippett Barr, Qazi Sadeq-Ur Rahman, Shams El Arifeen, Ahmed Ehsanur Rahman\",\"doi\":\"10.7189/jogh.15.04050\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global mortality, underscoring the need for reliable data to guide public health policy. In low- and middle-income countries, graveyard-based death records can offer valuable insights into COVID-19-related mortality, yet they remain limited. Additionally, data on mortality beyond the pandemic remains scarce as we approach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. We addressed this gap by using graveyard-based data to assess excess mortality during the pandemic (2020-23) and predict mortality trends through 2030.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analysed 70 585 deaths from six graveyards in Dhaka, Bangladesh, from January 2001 to December 2023. The data was divided into pre-COVID-19 (2001-19), peak-COVID-19 (2020-21), and end-of-COVID-19 (2022-23) phases. We assessed the excess mortality using the P-score and Bayesian approach. We estimated excess mortality with a log-linear Bayesian model and predicted death trends for 2024-30, reporting incidence rate ratio (IRR) with 95% credible intervals (CrI).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Overall, excess mortality was 69% greater in 2020 and 31% in 2023 compared to the 2018-19 average. The IRR for deaths during peak-COVID-19 was 1.66 times higher than pre-COVID-19 (95% CrI = 1.35-2.04). Neonates had significantly higher IRRs during both the peak (IRR = 1.45; 95% CrI = 1.02-2.05) and end-of-COVID-19 (IRR = 1.67; 95% CrI = 1.02-2.71). Individuals aged >40 years showed a significantly higher IRR during peak-COVID-19 (IRR = 1.79; 95% CrI = 1.46-2.18). Predictions using data between 2001-23 indicate rising mortality, with the number of adult deaths increasing from 3318 in 2023 to 5089 (95% CrI = 3871-6267) by 2030.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>We revealed a significant rise in mortality during the pandemic, with elevated death rates persisting at the end of the pandemic. Predictions indicate continued mortality increases through 2030, underscoring the pandemic's long-term health impacts. While further research is needed, these findings highlight the value of graveyard-based death registration data for tracking mortality trends and informing public health strategies.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48734,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Global Health\",\"volume\":\"15 \",\"pages\":\"04050\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-02-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11869516/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Global Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04050\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Global Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.15.04050","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Excess mortality during COVID-19 and prediction of mortality in Bangladesh: an analysis based on death records in urban graveyards.
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global mortality, underscoring the need for reliable data to guide public health policy. In low- and middle-income countries, graveyard-based death records can offer valuable insights into COVID-19-related mortality, yet they remain limited. Additionally, data on mortality beyond the pandemic remains scarce as we approach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. We addressed this gap by using graveyard-based data to assess excess mortality during the pandemic (2020-23) and predict mortality trends through 2030.
Methods: We analysed 70 585 deaths from six graveyards in Dhaka, Bangladesh, from January 2001 to December 2023. The data was divided into pre-COVID-19 (2001-19), peak-COVID-19 (2020-21), and end-of-COVID-19 (2022-23) phases. We assessed the excess mortality using the P-score and Bayesian approach. We estimated excess mortality with a log-linear Bayesian model and predicted death trends for 2024-30, reporting incidence rate ratio (IRR) with 95% credible intervals (CrI).
Results: Overall, excess mortality was 69% greater in 2020 and 31% in 2023 compared to the 2018-19 average. The IRR for deaths during peak-COVID-19 was 1.66 times higher than pre-COVID-19 (95% CrI = 1.35-2.04). Neonates had significantly higher IRRs during both the peak (IRR = 1.45; 95% CrI = 1.02-2.05) and end-of-COVID-19 (IRR = 1.67; 95% CrI = 1.02-2.71). Individuals aged >40 years showed a significantly higher IRR during peak-COVID-19 (IRR = 1.79; 95% CrI = 1.46-2.18). Predictions using data between 2001-23 indicate rising mortality, with the number of adult deaths increasing from 3318 in 2023 to 5089 (95% CrI = 3871-6267) by 2030.
Conclusions: We revealed a significant rise in mortality during the pandemic, with elevated death rates persisting at the end of the pandemic. Predictions indicate continued mortality increases through 2030, underscoring the pandemic's long-term health impacts. While further research is needed, these findings highlight the value of graveyard-based death registration data for tracking mortality trends and informing public health strategies.
期刊介绍：
Journal of Global Health is a peer-reviewed journal published by the Edinburgh University Global Health Society, a not-for-profit organization registered in the UK. We publish editorials, news, viewpoints, original research and review articles in two issues per year.
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