为更可靠的气候变化适应规划约束整个地球系统预估

IF 12.5 1区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Science Advances Pub Date : 2025-02-26
Chao Li, Francis W. Zwiers, Xuebin Zhang, Erich M. Fischer, Fujun Du, Jieyu Liu, Jianyu Wang, Yongxiao Liang, Tong Li, Lina Yuan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于人类和自然系统所面临的危害发生了变化,气候变暖正在造成更高水平的气候风险。对这些灾害将如何变化的预估受到气候模式气候敏感性的不确定性以及其他因素的影响。虽然全球变暖水平方法可以在某些应用中规避模式气候敏感性的不确定性,但面临特定适应责任的从业者往往发现这种预测难以使用,因为它们通常需要面向时间的信息。然而,将全球变暖水平方法应用于观测受限的变暖预估,从而为适应规划和实施提供更可靠的以时间为导向的预估,从而可以限制特定排放情景下的地球系统预估。这种方法还使个别团体能够对多方面的气候影响和因果机制进行一致和可比的评估,从而有利于为适应行动提供科学基础的国家和国际层面的气候评估。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Constraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning

Constraining the entire Earth system projections for more reliable climate change adaptation planning
The warming climate is creating increased levels of climate risk because of changes to the hazards to which human and natural systems are exposed. Projections of how those hazards will change are affected by uncertainties in the climate sensitivity of climate models, among other factors. While the level-of-global-warming approach can circumvent model climate sensitivity uncertainties in some applications, practitioners faced with specific adaptation responsibilities often find such projections difficult to use because they generally require time-oriented information. Earth system projections following specified emissions scenarios can, however, be constrained by applying the level-of-global-warming approach to observationally constrained warming projections to yield more reliable time-oriented projections for adaption planning and implementation. This approach also allows individual groups to produce consistent and comparable assessments of multifaceted climate impacts and causal mechanisms, thereby benefiting climate assessments at national and international levels that provide the science basis for adaptation action.
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来源期刊
Science Advances
Science Advances 综合性期刊-综合性期刊
CiteScore
21.40
自引率
1.50%
发文量
1937
审稿时长
29 weeks
期刊介绍: Science Advances, an open-access journal by AAAS, publishes impactful research in diverse scientific areas. It aims for fair, fast, and expert peer review, providing freely accessible research to readers. Led by distinguished scientists, the journal supports AAAS's mission by extending Science magazine's capacity to identify and promote significant advances. Evolving digital publishing technologies play a crucial role in advancing AAAS's global mission for science communication and benefitting humankind.
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