考虑统计不确定性的核安全壳事故内压脆弱性分析

IF 3 2区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL

International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI:10.1016/j.ijpvp.2025.105479

Xinbo Li , Xingyi Wu , Jinxin Gong , Song Jin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

核安全壳在事故条件下的概率安全性能评估对于确保核安全至关重要。本研究探讨了受内部压力影响的新型冠状病毒脆弱性分析中涉及的统计不确定性。基于数理统计原理和可靠性理论，提出了一种量化易损性曲线统计不确定性的新方法。在此基础上，提出了一种确定所需样品的最小数量以满足所需的分析精度的方法。在验证了所提出方法的有效性后，将其应用于评估NCV在内部压力下的脆弱性和可靠性。结果表明，在模拟样本数量有限的情况下，统计不确定性显著影响NCV的易损性曲线和总失效概率，且影响程度与置信度密切相关。所提出的方法可以有效地量化脆弱性分析中的统计不确定性，确定在一定置信度和分析精度下脆弱性分析所需的最小模拟样本数。

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Fragility analysis of nuclear containment vessels under accident internal pressure considering statistical uncertainty

Assessing the probabilistic safety performance of nuclear containment vessels (NCVs) under accident conditions is essential for ensuring nuclear safety. This study investigates the statistical uncertainty involved in fragility analysis of NCVs subjected to internal pressure. Based on the mathematical statistical principle and reliability theory, a new method is proposed for quantifying the statistical uncertainty of the fragility curve. On this basis, a method for determining the minimum number of necessary samples to meet the desired analytical accuracy is presented. After validating the effectiveness of the proposed methods, it is applied to assess the fragility and reliability of the NCV under internal pressure. The results show that statistical uncertainty significantly affects the fragility curve and total failure probability of the NCV when the number of simulation samples is limited, and the extent of the impact is closely related to the confidence level. The proposed methods can effectively quantify the statistical uncertainty in fragility analysis and can determine the minimum number of simulation samples required for fragility analysis at a specified confidence level and analytical accuracy.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 工程技术-工程：机械

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

13.30%

发文量

208

审稿时长

17 months

期刊介绍： Pressure vessel engineering technology is of importance in many branches of industry. This journal publishes the latest research results and related information on all its associated aspects, with particular emphasis on the structural integrity assessment, maintenance and life extension of pressurised process engineering plants. The anticipated coverage of the International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping ranges from simple mass-produced pressure vessels to large custom-built vessels and tanks. Pressure vessels technology is a developing field, and contributions on the following topics will therefore be welcome: • Pressure vessel engineering • Structural integrity assessment • Design methods • Codes and standards • Fabrication and welding • Materials properties requirements • Inspection and quality management • Maintenance and life extension • Ageing and environmental effects • Life management Of particular importance are papers covering aspects of significant practical application which could lead to major improvements in economy, reliability and useful life. While most accepted papers represent the results of original applied research, critical reviews of topical interest by world-leading experts will also appear from time to time. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping is indispensable reading for engineering professionals involved in the energy, petrochemicals, process plant, transport, aerospace and related industries; for manufacturers of pressure vessels and ancillary equipment; and for academics pursuing research in these areas.