A Nomogram for Predicting the Transition From Recurrent Acute Pancreatitis to Chronic Pancreatitis.

Objectives: Acute pancreatitis, recurrent acute pancreatitis, and chronic pancreatitis are recognized as a continuum of pancreatic diseases. Recurrence increases the risk of progression to chronic pancreatitis. The aim of this study was to search for clinical features that may promote the progression of chronic pancreatitis in patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis.

Materials and methods: We retrospectively reviewed patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV database. They were divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. A nomogram was constructed based on clinical features during the second hospitalization. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated using the concordance index, area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration plots.

Results: A total of 432 recurrent acute pancreatitis patients were evaluated, of which 93 (21.53%) were diagnosed with chronic pancreatitis later. Age, biliary pancreatitis, admission interval, alcohol dependence, lipase, and platelet were selected. The concordance index was 0.717 (95% confidence interval: 0.691-0.743) for the training cohort and 0.718 (95% confidence interval: 0.662-0.774) for the validation cohort. The area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve was >0.7 over 1000 days.

Conclusions: A nomogram was developed and validated to evaluate the transition from recurrent acute pancreatitis to chronic pancreatitis.