Ecological security prediction and land use conflict identification in fragile mountain cities: A case study of Longnan, China

Grasping the state of regional ecological security and effectively identifying land use conflicts is important for regional social stability and environmentally sustainable development, yet it remains a challenge to accurately assess this using a scientific framework. In this study, Longnan, China is taken as the research object, the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use is predicted by the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model; then the “health-sensitivity-risk” framework is established based on the definition of ecological security and the land use data to evaluate the ecological security of the region; and finally, the “production-living-ecological” space (PLES) definition is used to identify land use conflicts. The results show that from 2000 to 2030, the merging and fragmentation of patches in land use types occur simultaneously. Overall ecological security gradually improves from 2000 to 2020, and the improvement trend stagnates from 2020 to 2030; the partial deterioration of ecological security occurs in areas with frequent human activities. Land use conflicts gradually increase from the centre to the edge of patches; although there are mainly no conflicts, conflicts over cropland are more intense than over built-up land. This study can provide new ideas for the assessment of ecological security in fragile mountainous areas, and provide a theoretical basis for the future planning of their land use and the harmonious coexistence of human and nature.