利用非线性常微分方程探索年龄结构疟疾模型中治疗和疫苗接种之间的相互作用

Mahmudul Bari Hridoy, Angela Peace
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引用次数: 0

摘要

疟疾仍然是一个重大的全球卫生挑战,特别是在热带地区。对主要抗疟疾药物的耐药性正在蔓延,使治疗工作复杂化。虽然在消灭疟疾方面进展缓慢,但开发和采用新型疟疾疫苗为减轻流行地区的疾病负担带来了希望。为了应对这些挑战,我们开发了一个扩展的易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)年龄结构模型,将儿童疟疾疫苗接种、药物敏感和耐药菌株以及人类宿主和蚊子之间的相互作用纳入其中。我们的研究评估了疟疾疫苗接种覆盖率如何影响疾病流行和传播动态。我们得出了菌株的基本、干预和入侵繁殖数,并进行了敏感性分析,以确定影响感染流行的关键参数。我们的研究结果表明,模型结果主要受降低耐药菌株传播和自然恢复率的规模因素、药物治疗和疫苗接种效果以及蚊子死亡率的影响。数值模拟表明,虽然治疗减轻了疟疾疾病负担,但也增加了耐药病例的比例。相反,较高的疫苗接种效力与两种菌株的较低感染病例相关。这些结果表明,涉及疫苗接种和治疗的协同方法可以有效地降低感染人口的总体比例。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An exploration of the interplay between treatment and vaccination in an Age-Structured Malaria Model using non-linear ordinary differential equations
Malaria continues to be a significant global health challenge, particularly in tropical regions. Resistance to key antimalarial drugs is spreading, complicating treatment efforts. While progress toward eradication has been slow, the development and introduction of novel malaria vaccines offer hope for reducing the disease burden in endemic areas. To address these challenges, we develop an extended Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR) age-structured model incorporating malaria vaccination for children, drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains, and interactions between human hosts and mosquitoes. Our research evaluates how malaria vaccination coverage influences disease prevalence and transmission dynamics. We derive both strains’ basic, intervention, and invasion reproduction numbers and conduct sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters affecting infection prevalence. Our findings reveal that model outcomes are primarily influenced by scale factors that reduce transmission and natural recovery rates for the resistant strain, as well as by drug treatment and vaccination efficacies and mosquito death rates. Numerical simulations indicate that while treatment reduces the malaria disease burden, it also increases the proportion of drug-resistant cases. Conversely, higher vaccination efficacy correlates with lower infection cases for both strains. These results suggest that a synergistic approach involving vaccination and treatment could effectively decrease the overall proportion of the infected population.
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来源期刊
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Simulation, Nursing and Health Professions (General)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
79 days
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