对因减少颗粒物而增加预期寿命的健康影响评估

IF 8.4 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Xiao Lin, Richard T. Burnett, Junyan Xi, Jianjun Bai, Yining Xiang, Tian Tian, Zhiqiang Li, Shimin Chen, Jie Jiang, Weihua Hu, Xiaowen Wang, Ying Wang, Zhicheng Du, Wangjian Zhang, Yuantao Hao
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引用次数: 0

摘要

颗粒物质(PM)和全因死亡率之间的浓度-响应关系的形状特征如何影响预期寿命(LE)增益仍不清楚。基于珠江队列、2021年世界卫生组织空气质量指南和综合比较风险评估框架,我们确定了PM2.5、全因死亡率和LE降低之间的单模态关系。PM2.5每增加10个单位,死亡风险增加31.2%(95%不确定区间:27.6-35.0%)。将PM2.5降低到5 μg/m3的指导阈值,可防止0.193(0.175-0.212)万人死亡,使平均寿命增加4.07年(3.60-4.52)。相比之下,PM2.5减少5.6%和10%带来的LE收益较小,分别为0.33(0.28-0.38)和0.58(0.49-0.67)年。这些发现强调了在空气污染控制中考虑非线性关系的重要性,并为制定可持续计划以提高人口寿命提供了必要的激励。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Health impact assessment on life expectancy gains ascribed to particulate matter reduction

Health impact assessment on life expectancy gains ascribed to particulate matter reduction

How the shape characterization of the concentration-response relationships between particulate matter (PM) and all-cause mortality influences life expectancy (LE) gains remains unclear. Based on the Pearl River Cohort, the 2021 World Health Organization air quality guidelines, and an integrated comparative risk assessment framework, we identified sigmodal relationships between PM2.5, all-cause mortality, and LE reduction. A 10-unit increase in PM2.5 was associated with an excess mortality risk of 31.2% (95% uncertainty interval: 27.6–35.0%). Reducing PM2.5 to the guideline threshold of 5 μg/m3 could prevent 0.193 (0.175–0.212) million deaths, contributing to a 4.07–year (3.60–4.52) average LE gain. In contrast, PM2.5 reductions by 5.6% and 10% resulted in smaller LE gains of 0.33 (0.28–0.38) and 0.58 (0.49–0.67) years, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for the nonlinear relationship in air pollution control and provide essential incentives for tailoring sustainable plans to enhance population longevity.

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来源期刊
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.30%
发文量
87
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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