{"title":"血吸虫病对全球疾病负担的影响：基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析","authors":"Zhangzhou Shen, Houqiang Luo","doi":"10.1051/parasite/2025005","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease that causes a significant global burden. The aim of this study was to report the latest estimates of the global, regional, and national schistosomiasis disease burden and forecast changes in schistosomiasis-related disease burden. This work was based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We analyzed the schistosomiasis data by sex, age in years, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region and country, using Age-Standardized Rates (ASR) for comparisons among different groups. The Estimated Annual Percent Changes (EAPC) analysis was used to evaluate the temporal trend of the disease burden, and the Differential Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) models were used to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2046. In the GBD 2021 study, it was reported that compared to 1990, the number of deaths has decreased by 74,350, the prevalence number has increased by 1,482,260, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) have decreased by 1,770,436. Additionally, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) has decreased by 0.31 per 100,000 people, with an EAPC of -0.353 (95% CI: -0.361 to -0.344). Similarly, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) has decreased by 15.45 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -1.56, 95% CI: -1.78 to -1.34), and the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) has decreased by 559.64 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -0.63, 95% CI: -0.95 to -0.31). The regions and countries with the highest disease burden are mostly concentrated in Africa. Despite a general decline in global schistosomiasis burden indicators, the burden of disease has actually increased in high SDI areas. The ARIMA and ES models forecast results show that female mortality and ASMR will decline in the next 25 years, while male mortality and ASMR will remain stable, and other disease indicators will continue to decline. The global schistosomiasis burden has significantly decreased over the past 30 years, but it remains high in African regions and countries, as well as low-SDI areas. Effective cooperation among countries should be strengthened to improve the disease burden in high-burden areas and countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":19796,"journal":{"name":"Parasite","volume":"32 ","pages":"12"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11843987/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The impact of schistosomiasis on the Global Disease Burden: a systematic analysis based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study.\",\"authors\":\"Zhangzhou Shen, Houqiang Luo\",\"doi\":\"10.1051/parasite/2025005\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease that causes a significant global burden. The aim of this study was to report the latest estimates of the global, regional, and national schistosomiasis disease burden and forecast changes in schistosomiasis-related disease burden. This work was based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We analyzed the schistosomiasis data by sex, age in years, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region and country, using Age-Standardized Rates (ASR) for comparisons among different groups. The Estimated Annual Percent Changes (EAPC) analysis was used to evaluate the temporal trend of the disease burden, and the Differential Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) models were used to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2046. In the GBD 2021 study, it was reported that compared to 1990, the number of deaths has decreased by 74,350, the prevalence number has increased by 1,482,260, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) have decreased by 1,770,436. Additionally, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) has decreased by 0.31 per 100,000 people, with an EAPC of -0.353 (95% CI: -0.361 to -0.344). Similarly, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) has decreased by 15.45 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -1.56, 95% CI: -1.78 to -1.34), and the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) has decreased by 559.64 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -0.63, 95% CI: -0.95 to -0.31). The regions and countries with the highest disease burden are mostly concentrated in Africa. Despite a general decline in global schistosomiasis burden indicators, the burden of disease has actually increased in high SDI areas. The ARIMA and ES models forecast results show that female mortality and ASMR will decline in the next 25 years, while male mortality and ASMR will remain stable, and other disease indicators will continue to decline. The global schistosomiasis burden has significantly decreased over the past 30 years, but it remains high in African regions and countries, as well as low-SDI areas. Effective cooperation among countries should be strengthened to improve the disease burden in high-burden areas and countries.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":19796,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Parasite\",\"volume\":\"32 \",\"pages\":\"12\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11843987/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Parasite\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1051/parasite/2025005\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/2/21 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PARASITOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Parasite","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1051/parasite/2025005","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/2/21 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PARASITOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The impact of schistosomiasis on the Global Disease Burden: a systematic analysis based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study.
Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease that causes a significant global burden. The aim of this study was to report the latest estimates of the global, regional, and national schistosomiasis disease burden and forecast changes in schistosomiasis-related disease burden. This work was based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We analyzed the schistosomiasis data by sex, age in years, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region and country, using Age-Standardized Rates (ASR) for comparisons among different groups. The Estimated Annual Percent Changes (EAPC) analysis was used to evaluate the temporal trend of the disease burden, and the Differential Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) models were used to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2046. In the GBD 2021 study, it was reported that compared to 1990, the number of deaths has decreased by 74,350, the prevalence number has increased by 1,482,260, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) have decreased by 1,770,436. Additionally, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) has decreased by 0.31 per 100,000 people, with an EAPC of -0.353 (95% CI: -0.361 to -0.344). Similarly, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) has decreased by 15.45 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -1.56, 95% CI: -1.78 to -1.34), and the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) has decreased by 559.64 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -0.63, 95% CI: -0.95 to -0.31). The regions and countries with the highest disease burden are mostly concentrated in Africa. Despite a general decline in global schistosomiasis burden indicators, the burden of disease has actually increased in high SDI areas. The ARIMA and ES models forecast results show that female mortality and ASMR will decline in the next 25 years, while male mortality and ASMR will remain stable, and other disease indicators will continue to decline. The global schistosomiasis burden has significantly decreased over the past 30 years, but it remains high in African regions and countries, as well as low-SDI areas. Effective cooperation among countries should be strengthened to improve the disease burden in high-burden areas and countries.
期刊介绍：
Parasite is an international open-access, peer-reviewed, online journal publishing high quality papers on all aspects of human and animal parasitology. Reviews, articles and short notes may be submitted. Fields include, but are not limited to: general, medical and veterinary parasitology; morphology, including ultrastructure; parasite systematics, including entomology, acarology, helminthology and protistology, and molecular analyses; molecular biology and biochemistry; immunology of parasitic diseases; host-parasite relationships; ecology and life history of parasites; epidemiology; therapeutics; new diagnostic tools.
All papers in Parasite are published in English. Manuscripts should have a broad interest and must not have been published or submitted elsewhere. No limit is imposed on the length of manuscripts, but they should be concisely written. Papers of limited interest such as case reports, epidemiological studies in punctual areas, isolated new geographical records, and systematic descriptions of single species will generally not be accepted, but might be considered if the authors succeed in demonstrating their interest.
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