Why dairy farmers leave the industry: The role of control, autonomy, and self-efficacy

While global demand for milk and dairy products grows, the number of dairy farms in the United Kingdom has fallen by 56% in the last 20 years, coupled with a decline in cows and farmers' numbers. Research has explored a wide range of factors impacting dairy farmers' decision to leave the industry early; however, these factors are collated from a diversity of individual studies, and we lack a comprehensive understanding of what individual factors are more prominent in driving dairy farmers' decision and how factors may interplay within a single study context. To address this gap, we utilised an explanatory sequential mixed-methods research design, including a questionnaire (n = 335) followed by in-depth interviews (n = 21) with current and former dairy farmers in the UK. Findings identified a complex interplay among Profitability, Compliance and Regulation, Milk Price, Investments, Mental Health, Physical Health, Availability of Labour, Animal Welfare, Anti-dairy Sentiment, Succession, Milk Contracts, Climate Change, and Family Pressures. Our paper contributes to existing literature in three ways. First, we offer a comprehensive overview of the factors influencing dairy farmers’ intention to leave the industry early; second, we discuss how these factors interrelate dynamically, providing a model of the phenomenon highlighting the central role of control, autonomy, and self-efficacy; third, we provide insights on a fruitful empirical context, as the UK context captures current European trends on dairy farm exit and includes a diversity of farm types found across different geographic contexts, increasing the wider applicability of findings.