地缘政治和气候风险在推动欧洲电力市场不确定性中的作用

IF 14.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108276

Peter Cincinelli , Elisabetta Pellini

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了批发日前电力市场价格泡沫的发生，并研究了地缘政治和气候风险对这种极端价格波动的影响。对12个主要的欧洲电力市场进行了实证分析，即APX（荷兰）、BPX（比利时）、EEX（德国）、EPX（英国）、GME（意大利）、NordPool（芬兰、挪威和瑞典）、OMEL（葡萄牙）、OPCOM（罗马尼亚）和POWERNEXT（法国）。我们的研究结果表明，价格泡沫的可能性随着地缘政治风险的增加和气温的升高而增加，而随着降水和风速的增加而减少。具体而言，地缘政治风险每增加一个单位，价格爆炸性的可能性就会增加8.23%。这些结果凸显了欧洲国家加快可再生能源部署、增强电力系统灵活性和加强电力市场一体化的迫切需要。这些措施对于实现气候目标、保护消费者免受未来能源危机的影响以及支持制造业实现负担得起的电气化至关重要。

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The role of geopolitical and climate risk in driving uncertainty in European electricity markets

This paper examines the occurrence of price bubbles in wholesale day-ahead electricity markets and investigates the impact of geopolitical and climate risk on such extreme price movements. The empirical analysis is executed for twelve major European electricity markets, namely APX (Netherlands), BPX (Belgium), EEX (Germany), EPX (United Kingdom), GME (Italy), NordPool (Finland, Norway and Sweden), OMEL (Portugal), OPCOM (Romania) and POWERNEXT (France). Our findings reveal that the probability of price bubbles increases with higher geopolitical risk and elevated air temperatures, while it decreases with greater precipitation and stronger wind speed. Specifically, a one-unit increase in geopolitical risk raises the probability of price explosiveness by 8.23%. These results underscore the urgent need for European countries to accelerate renewable energy deployment, enhance power system flexibility, and strengthen electricity market integration. Such measures are critical to achieving climate targets, protecting consumers from future energy crises, and supporting the affordable electrification of the manufacturing sector.

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来源期刊

Energy Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

18.60

自引率

12.50%

发文量

524

期刊介绍： Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.