综合技术风险指标与电力系统风险管理的先进方法

IF 4.2 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC
Elaheh Yaghoubi , Elnaz Yaghoubi , Mohammad Reza Maghami , Mehdi Zareian Jahromi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在动态和复杂的电力系统环境中,准确评估和减轻技术风险对于确保可靠和安全的电力供应至关重要。尽管取得了进步,但在了解风险分析的更广泛趋势和探索综合技术风险指数方面,仍存在重大的研究差距。现有的研究往往局限于具体措施,忽视了电力系统风险管理的动态变化。本综述通过系统地检查一系列风险措施来解决这些差距,包括未开发的指标,如负荷预期损失(LOLE)、预期未服务能量(EUE)、负荷能力限制(LAL)和预期未服务能量(EENS),以及通常研究的指标,如电压投入和弹性。该评论通过三个部分系统地解决了这一挑战,确保了从介绍到分析和发现的逻辑进展。LOLE估计电力供应短缺的可能性,而EUE量化由于停电而无法交付的预期能源。此外,未充分开发的度量LAL和EENS分析提供了系统漏洞的更全面的视图。本研究采用文献计量学分析的系统综述来确定关键挑战,分析学术研究趋势,并引入失效模式和效果分析(FMEA)等方法。FMEA识别潜在的故障点,评估其影响,并将不确定性和可靠性集成到风险分析中,为电力系统脆弱性提供有价值的见解。这种方法确保了对漏洞的详细理解,从而允许在系统可靠性方面采取主动措施。这篇综述分为三个部分:对常见技术风险指数的介绍,对当前风险管理挑战的探索,以及对新方法及其实际意义的评估。研究结果强调,与弹性和不确定性等指标相比,LOLE和EUE等指标受到的关注较少。此外,风险评估中的成本和时间考虑仍未得到充分探讨。本文为电力公司优化运营规划、优先考虑投资和提高系统可靠性提供了可操作的见解。本文将未充分利用的指标与FMEA等创新方法相结合,提供了一个新的风险分析框架,弥合了理论差距,并为实际决策提供了支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Comprehensive technical risk indices and advanced methodologies for power system risk management

Comprehensive technical risk indices and advanced methodologies for power system risk management
In a dynamic and complex power system landscape, accurately assessing and mitigating technical risks is essential for ensuring a reliable and secure electricity supply. Despite advancement, significant research gaps persist in understanding the broader trends of risk analysis and exploring comprehensive technical risk indices. Existing studies often focus narrowly on specific measures, overlooking evolving dynamics in power systems risk management. This review addresses these gaps by systematically examining a range of risk measures, including underexplored indices such as loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected unserved energy (EUE), load ability limits (LAL), and energy expected not served (EENS), alongside commonly studied indices like voltage devotion and resilience. The review systematically addresses this challenge through three sections, ensuring a logical progression from introduction to analysis and findings. LOLE estimates the likelihood of power supply shortages, while EUE quantifies the expected energy not delivered due to outages. Additionally, underexplored metrics LAL and EENS analysis provide a more holistic view of system vulnerabilities. The study employs systematic reviews with bibliometrics analysis to identify key challenges, analyze academic research trends, and introduce methodologies, like failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA). FMEA identifies potential failure points, assesses their impacts, and integrates uncertainty and reliability into risk analysis, offering valuable insights into power system vulnerabilities. This approach ensures a detailed understanding of vulnerability, allowing for proactive measures in system reliability. The review is structured into three sections: an introduction to common technical risk indices, an exploration of challenges in current risk management, and an assessment of novel methodologies and their practical implications. Findings emphasize that indices like LOLE and EUE receive less attention compared to metrics like resilience and uncertainty. Furthermore, cost and time considerations in risk evaluation remain underexplored. This paper offers actionable insights for power companies to optimize operational planning and prioritize investments and enhance system reliability. Integrating underutilized indices with innovative methods like FMEA, this article provides a novel risk analysis framework that bridges theoretical gaps and supports practical decision-making.
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来源期刊
Electric Power Systems Research
Electric Power Systems Research 工程技术-工程:电子与电气
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
17.90%
发文量
963
审稿时长
3.8 months
期刊介绍: Electric Power Systems Research is an international medium for the publication of original papers concerned with the generation, transmission, distribution and utilization of electrical energy. The journal aims at presenting important results of work in this field, whether in the form of applied research, development of new procedures or components, orginal application of existing knowledge or new designapproaches. The scope of Electric Power Systems Research is broad, encompassing all aspects of electric power systems. The following list of topics is not intended to be exhaustive, but rather to indicate topics that fall within the journal purview. • Generation techniques ranging from advances in conventional electromechanical methods, through nuclear power generation, to renewable energy generation. • Transmission, spanning the broad area from UHV (ac and dc) to network operation and protection, line routing and design. • Substation work: equipment design, protection and control systems. • Distribution techniques, equipment development, and smart grids. • The utilization area from energy efficiency to distributed load levelling techniques. • Systems studies including control techniques, planning, optimization methods, stability, security assessment and insulation coordination.
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