Beauty demands sacrifices: is it possible to overcome both climate change and anthropogenic impact for Pamir-Alay Tulips (Liliaceae)?

Tulipa (Liliaceae) is a well-known ornamental plant that supports a horticultural trade worth over a billion euros. Existing research highlights the expanding array of risks faced by Tulipa species, with climate change emerging as a significant and escalating threat. However, the fate of phytogeographically restricted red-flowering species of tulips in the Pamir-Alay mountain system is crucial, as they are also harvested by local people or visitors purely for their ornamental attractiveness. To study this, 41 bioclimatic and ecologic variables were utilized in the investigation. The suitable areas for T. ingens are expected to increase nearly twofold, while for T. affinis and T. carinata, they will remain constant. However, suitable habitats for T. tubergeniana are projected to decrease considerably. Surprisingly, the western Tian-Shan, where these species are not native, was highlighted as climatically suitable and may be an important area for translocation efforts in the future for T. affinis, T. carinata, and T. ingens. We also identified protected areas that could provide suitable habitats for these species. Additionally, we recommend creating living collections of T. tubergeniana, given the significant decrease in suitable habitat. Ultimately, relocating these species to protected regions with projected suitable habitats plays a crucial role in supporting their survival.