Marcin Piotr Walkowiak, Karol Bandurski, Jarosław Walkowiak, Dariusz Walkowiak
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During the analyzed period, Europe outpaced climate change, with the capacity to tolerate an additional 1 °C rise every 17.9 years [95% CI 15.3–22.7]. Extending the temperature indicators beyond the prior 3 years did not enhance predictive accuracy, suggesting swift adaptations and historical climate lacked any predictive value. Additionally, increasing economic output, likely driven by infrastructural improvements, especially greater affordability of air conditioning, enabled tolerating each additional 1 °C due to a per capita GDP increase of 19.7 thousand euros [95% CI 14.6–30.3]. Consistently, the increase in cooling energy demand was the strongest in eastern Europe. The findings shed light on the mechanisms driving the observed reduction in heatwave mortality despite the warming climate trend, offering a more plausible basis for extrapolation than assuming a lack of adaptation. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
目前对气候变化影响的预测依赖于缺乏适应的保守假设,预测热浪死亡率会显著增加。然而,长期研究表明,实际热浪死亡人数有所下降,这引发了对潜在机制的质疑。我们将Eurostat每周死亡率数据(通过黄土季节性趋势分解提取基线,并通过主成分分析降维和重建进行平滑)与经济指标、1950年以来的哥白尼温度数据和ENTSO-E电力需求数据结合起来。面板回归分析了2000-2022年日气温超过22°C的周内的死亡率模式。在分析期间,欧洲的速度超过了气候变化,每17.9年可承受额外升高1°C的能力[95% CI 15.3-22.7]。将温度指标扩展到过去3年之后并不能提高预测精度,这表明快速适应和历史气候缺乏任何预测价值。此外,经济产出的增加,可能是由基础设施的改善推动的,特别是空调的可负担性提高,由于人均GDP增加了19.7万欧元,因此可以容忍每增加1°C [95% CI 14.6-30.3]。一直以来,东欧制冷能源需求的增长最为强劲。这些发现揭示了在气候变暖趋势下导致热浪死亡率下降的机制,为外推提供了一个更合理的基础,而不是假设缺乏适应。该模式强调长期经济增长和解决能源贫困的作用。
Outpacing climate change: adaptation to heatwaves in Europe
Current predictions of climate change impacts rely on conservative assumptions about a lack of adaptation, projecting significantly increased heatwave mortality. However, long-term studies have shown a decline in actual heatwave deaths, raising questions about the underlying mechanisms. We combined Eurostat weekly mortality data (baseline extracted via Seasonal-Trend decomposition by Loess and smoothed through Principal Component Analysis dimension reduction and reconstruction) with economic indicators, Copernicus temperature data since 1950, and ENTSO-E electricity demand data. Panel regression analyzed mortality patterns during weeks with daily temperatures exceeding 22 °C for 2000–2022. During the analyzed period, Europe outpaced climate change, with the capacity to tolerate an additional 1 °C rise every 17.9 years [95% CI 15.3–22.7]. Extending the temperature indicators beyond the prior 3 years did not enhance predictive accuracy, suggesting swift adaptations and historical climate lacked any predictive value. Additionally, increasing economic output, likely driven by infrastructural improvements, especially greater affordability of air conditioning, enabled tolerating each additional 1 °C due to a per capita GDP increase of 19.7 thousand euros [95% CI 14.6–30.3]. Consistently, the increase in cooling energy demand was the strongest in eastern Europe. The findings shed light on the mechanisms driving the observed reduction in heatwave mortality despite the warming climate trend, offering a more plausible basis for extrapolation than assuming a lack of adaptation. The model emphasizes the role of long term economic growth and addressing energy poverty.
期刊介绍:
The Journal publishes original research papers, review articles and short communications on studies examining the interactions between living organisms and factors of the natural and artificial atmospheric environment.
Living organisms extend from single cell organisms, to plants and animals, including humans. The atmospheric environment includes climate and weather, electromagnetic radiation, and chemical and biological pollutants. The journal embraces basic and applied research and practical aspects such as living conditions, agriculture, forestry, and health.
The journal is published for the International Society of Biometeorology, and most membership categories include a subscription to the Journal.