Impact of coastal land use on long-term shoreline change

Coastal erosion poses a significant socio-economic threat to coastal populations worldwide. However, most studies often neglect the impact of land use patterns on shoreline dynamics, just focusing on the marine physical processes driving coastal erosion. Disregarding the influence of human-induced factors inevitably leads to biases and uncertainties in coastal zone management, especially when dealing with complex, anthropized environments. The present study aims to fill this gap by proposing an integrated approach to investigate the relationship between coastal erosion and land use change. Long-term shoreline variations are related to land use pattern change, wave climate and sea levels. The methodology is tested on a case study in the South-East of Sicily (Italy). Results revealed that most of the coastal stretch has undergone erosion phenomena with an average value of −0.55 m/yr between 1955 and 2022. Higher erosion rates are observed in the correspondence of the area where the natural land cover changed from dune/beach habitats to urban areas. Offshore wave climate and sea level analyses showed no significant increasing trends in storm surges and significant wave height, supporting the finding that land use change is the main driver of long-term coastal erosion trend.