中国森林局长制度对森林生态安全的影响评价——基于ArcGIS和计量经济学的综合分析

IF 7 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Ecological Indicators Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113251

Yuchi Zhang , Lili Yao , Zhijie Zhang , Minshou Li

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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国实施林长制，对森林生态系统进行了系统管理，迅速改变了中国森林的生态安全状况，为森林与人类的可持续发展提供了宝贵的制度经验。本研究采用“双山理论”与驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）模型相结合的评价体系，利用TOPSIS方法建立了2012 - 2022年中国森林生态安全指数。运用基于ArcGIS和计量经济学的方法，系统分析了中国森林生态安全指数（FESI）在实施林长制（FCS）前后的变化，包括多期差中差（DID）模型政策效应检验、中介效应分析、异质影响分析、经济后果检验、时空变化分析、空间自相关分析、收敛分析和灰色预测。研究结果表明，在研究期间，中国森林生态安全指数（FESI）呈上升趋势，从2012年的0.1630上升到2022年的0.1749。这一趋势预计将持续下去，预计到2027年FESI将达到0.1792。此外，中国FESI存在空间自相关和收敛性。实施林长制度促进了中国森林资源管理水平的提高。财政分权的中介作用促进了政策效果，森林资源禀赋对政策效果有调节作用。实施时间越长，推广效果越好。FCS的实施也促进了区域经济的发展。相关分析表明，通过FESI的中介作用，FCS对林业经济增长的贡献率达到30.2%。研究结论总结了中国经验，丰富了全球森林生态安全研究，为全球森林生态安全发展提供了研究案例。

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Assessing the impact of China’s forest chief system on forest ecological security: An integrated ArcGIS and econometric analysis

China has implemented the Forest Chief System (FCS) policy to manage forest ecosystems systematically, rapidly altering the ecological security status of China’s forests and providing valuable institutional experience for the sustainable development of both forests and humanity. This study employs an evaluation system combining the “Two Mountains Theory” and the Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Management (DPSIRM) model, utilizing the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method to establish the China Forest Ecological Security Index from 2012 to 2022. With ArcGIS- and econometric-based methods to systematically analyze the changes in China’s Forest Ecological Security Index (FESI) before and after implementing the Forest Chief System (FCS), including multi-period Difference-in-differences (DID) model policy effect testing, mediation effect analysis, heterogeneous impact analysis, economic consequence examination, spatiotemporal change analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, convergence analysis and grey forecasting. The research findings reveal an upward trend in China’s Forest Ecological Security Index (FESI) over the study period, increasing from 0.1630 in 2012 to 0.1749 in 2022. This trend is projected to continue, with the FESI anticipated to reach 0.1792 by 2027. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation and convergence exist in China’s FESI. Implementing the Forest Chief System promotes the improvement of China’s FESI. The policy effect is facilitated by fiscal decentralization’s mediating role and moderated by the forest resource endowment. The promotional effect increases the longer the implementation time. Implementing the FCS also promotes regional economic development. Related analysis indicates that 30.2% of forestry economic growth results from the FCS through the FESI mediating effect. The research conclusions encapsulate the Chinese experience, enrich the study of global forest ecological security, and provide research cases for the development of forest ecological security worldwide.

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来源期刊

Ecological Indicators 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

11.80

自引率

8.70%

发文量

1163

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： The ultimate aim of Ecological Indicators is to integrate the monitoring and assessment of ecological and environmental indicators with management practices. The journal provides a forum for the discussion of the applied scientific development and review of traditional indicator approaches as well as for theoretical, modelling and quantitative applications such as index development. Research into the following areas will be published. • All aspects of ecological and environmental indicators and indices. • New indicators, and new approaches and methods for indicator development, testing and use. • Development and modelling of indices, e.g. application of indicator suites across multiple scales and resources. • Analysis and research of resource, system- and scale-specific indicators. • Methods for integration of social and other valuation metrics for the production of scientifically rigorous and politically-relevant assessments using indicator-based monitoring and assessment programs. • How research indicators can be transformed into direct application for management purposes. • Broader assessment objectives and methods, e.g. biodiversity, biological integrity, and sustainability, through the use of indicators. • Resource-specific indicators such as landscape, agroecosystems, forests, wetlands, etc.