[Prediction of Carbon Peak in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Lasso-GRNN Neural Network Model].

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region is a cluster of energy consumption and carbon emissions in China. Reducing carbon emissions and achieving a carbon peak are the primary goals of the region. Considering the carbon emission data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 1995 to 2021, and the data on influencing factors on carbon emissions as research samples, the decoupling value of carbon emissions and economic growth in the three regions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was first calculated, and the decoupling state was divided. Secondly, considering the complexity of factors affecting carbon emissions, the Lasso variable selection method was used to determine the key factors affecting carbon emissions in each region of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. The selected key factor values were considered the inputs of the GRNN and BP neural networks, and the network output was the carbon emission values of the corresponding places. The Lasso-GRNN and Lasso-BP carbon emission models of each region were analyzed and compared, and the Lasso-GRNN prediction results were superior to those of the Lasso-BP model after comprehensive analysis and comparison in all aspects. Therefore, the Lasso-GRNN model was selected to further set the baseline scenario, factor regulation scenario, and comprehensive regulation scenario for analysis and prediction. The results showed that： ① The economic growth and carbon emissions of Beijing and Tianjin achieved strong decoupling, whereas Hebei Province was in a weak decoupling state, and the overall economic development state was not ideal, which needs to be adjusted and optimized. ② Under each scenario setting, the carbon peak in Beijing was 138 439 800 tons in 2010, and Tianjin achieved the peak carbon value of 211.154 8 million tons in 2013. Hebei Province, under the comprehensive factor control scenario, was predicted to achieve the peak of carbon in 2029, with a peak of 9 240.286 million tons. Based on the research results, reasonable suggestions were put forward for the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, optimizing the industrial structure, and developing low-carbon paths in a differentiated way to further strengthen the cooperation between Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and promote the innovation of a low-carbon cooperation system and mechanism.