Navigating Displacement: The Intertemporal Migration and Settlement Experiences of Ukrainians in Latvia

The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 resulted in the largest wave of displacement in Europe since World War II, with approximately eight million people–primarily women, children and older people–leaving Ukraine. Over 42 thousand individuals arrived in Latvia in the first month after the outbreak of war, seeking refuge and received widespread government and civil organisation support. This study explores migration and settlement experiences of Ukrainian war-displaced people in Latvia over the very early period of displacement. It takes an intertemporal approach and studies the development of aspirations and perceptions in the decision-making process, based on 72 interviews conducted with Ukrainians during the early months of the conflict in March–April 2022 and 7 months later. We document the transition from immediate concerns around displacement to more long-term considerations about settling and integration. We find that plans with respect to settlement and integration are intertwined with uncertainties; intentions for returning home remain strong but tend to lose the time dimension. The displaced remain in the liminal space between countries caused by families left behind or in other countries, as well as duty and desires to return home but being unable to do so for safety reasons. We assert that social networks play a major role in the early stages of forced migration decisions but in varied ways depending on the time. Overall, the decision-making whether to settle in the host country, return to the home country or move onward are complex and dynamic processes that undergo temporal changes.