Landscape ecological risk assessment of the northern coastal region of China based on the improved ESRISK framework: A case study of Cangzhou City

Cangzhou City, located in Hebei Province, is a typical ecologically vulnerable coastal area and a major grain-producing region within the Jingjinji area, playing a crucial role in the region’s sustainable eco-economic development. The interplay of natural disasters and anthropogenic activities has introduced greater variability and uncertainty to landscape ecological risks (LERs) in the region. Assessing these risks and identifying their key drivers is essential for safeguarding food security, maintaining ecological function stability, and implementing effective risk prevention and control strategies. This study quantitatively assesses the loss of five key ecosystem services in Cangzhou from 2008 to 2023, including grain production (GP), carbon sequestration (CS), soil conservation (SC), water yield (WY), and habitat quality (HQ), using the InVEST model. It optimizes the ESRISK framework and employs the Entropy Weighting Method − Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP-EWM) to construct a future loss probability index model. Following a “loss-probability” framework, the research conducts an in-depth assessment of LERs and identifies their key driving factors. The results reveal the following: (1) From 2008 to 2023, the changes in the five typical ecosystem services in Cangzhou City were relatively stable, although significant shifts occurred in ecosystem services within the eastern coastal and central urban areas. (2) From 2013 to 2023, the spatial differentiation characteristics of LER in Cangzhou City were evident, with a trend of higher risk in the southeast and lower risk in the northwest. The areas of extremely high and high-risk levels decreased each year, with the overall risk focus shifting from medium-low risk to low risk, indicating an overall improvement in regional ecological risk. (3) Overall, LER was mainly influenced by factors such as vegetation cover and fertilizer input per unit of cultivated land. Locally, salinization, vegetation cover, the proportion of built-up land, and farmland landscape fragmentation had a more pronounced impact on LER. This study highlights the spatial variability and key drivers of LERs in Cangzhou, providing valuable insights for decision-making and promoting sustainable development in coastal regions.