Jaguar density estimation in Mexico: The conservation importance of considering home range orientation in spatial capture–recapture

Accurate estimation of population parameters for imperiled wildlife is crucial for effective conservation decision-making. Population density is commonly used for monitoring imperiled species across space and time, and spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models can produce unbiased density estimates. However, many imperiled species are restricted to fragmented remnant habitats in landscapes severely modified by humans, which can alter animal space use in ways that violate typical SCR model assumptions, possibly cryptically biasing density estimates and misinforming conservation actions. Using data from a two-year camera-trapping survey in the Central Pacific Coast region, Mexico, we demonstrate the potential importance to endangered jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation of considering non-circular home ranges when estimating population density with SCR. Strong evidence existed that jaguars had elliptical home ranges wherein movements primarily occurred along linearly arranged coastal habitats that the camera array aligned with. Accounting for this movement with the SCR anisotropic detection function transformation, density estimates were 30%–32% higher than estimates from standard SCR models that assumed circular home ranges. Given much of suitable jaguar habitat in Mexico is fragmented and linearly oriented along coastlines and mountain ranges, accommodating irregular space use in SCR may be critical for obtaining reliable density estimates to inform effective jaguar conservation.