A geospatial and statistical analysis of land surface temperature in response to land use land cover changes and urban heat island dynamics.

The escalating trend of global urbanization, particularly pronounced in the burgeoning urban areas of Pakistan, necessitates a meticulous examination of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and their extensive environmental repercussions. Understanding these transformations is crucial for informed decision-making in evolving ecological dynamics. This research utilizes Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS), and statistical analyses to investigate LULC thoroughly changes in Okara District, Pakistan, from 1991 to 2023. Despite its considerable socio-economic significance, Okara District has remained relatively understudied, making this research a crucial contribution to understanding its evolving landscape. Key indicators include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), correlated with Land Surface Temperature (LST). Findings include a 22.6% decline in vegetation cover (415.1 km²) and a 64.1% increase in urban areas (110.7 km²) from 1991 to 2023. Correlations reveal a consistent negative relationship between NDVI and LST (R², 0.55-0.69) and a positive correlation between LST and NDBI (R² 0.62-0.69), indicating the persistent Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. The study underscores the urgent need for sustainable urban planning to balance developmental needs and ecological preservation. Informed decision-making can mitigate the UHI effect, emphasizing the broader implications for global urbanization challenges. This research contributes to understanding LULC dynamics and fosters discussions on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), climate action, and the development of resilient cities and communities.