{"title":"15-49岁育龄妇女乳腺癌发病率的全球演变：一项30年分析","authors":"Chengwei Xia, Yini Liu, Wei Yong, Xin Qing","doi":"10.1007/s00432-025-06113-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Breast cancer (BC) poses an increasing threat to women's health, yet its characteristics in women of childbearing age (WCBA) are infrequently reported. This study aims to investigate the patterns and trends in BC incidence among WCBA over the past decades.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>This study focuses on BC incidence in women aged 15-49 years, consistent with the WHO definition of WCBA. Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for BC incidence in WCBA were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021. We utilized an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change in incidence (net drift, % per year) and the annual percentage change within each age group (local drift, % per year). This model also provided fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period deviations (age effects) and period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) from 1992 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the global incidence of BC among WCBA was 561.44 thousand (95% UI 519.76 to 606.99). Between 1992 and 2021, the estimated annual change in BC incidence among WCBA was 0.47 (95% CI 0.41-0.52) worldwide, ranging from -0.43 (95% CI -0.54--0.31) in High sociodemographic index (SDI) region to 2.03 (95% CI 1.97-2.1) in Low-middle SDI region. Local drift analysis showed that higher SDI regions had higher age-standardized incidence rates among WCBA, with age effects demonstrating similar patterns across different SDI regions and increasing risk with age. Notably, the rising trend in BC incidence among WCBA occurs at progressively younger ages. Globally, unfavorable period and cohort effects were observed. All SDI regions exhibited increased period and cohort risks, except for the High SDI region, which saw a reduction in incidence rates influenced by period and cohort effects, particularly among those born after 1996.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The increasing incidence of BC among WCBA highlights the urgent need for effective intervention and preventive policies to alleviate this growing global burden.</p>","PeriodicalId":15118,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology","volume":"151 2","pages":"75"},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11814059/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global evolution of breast cancer incidence in childbearing-age women aged 15-49 years: a 30-year analysis.\",\"authors\":\"Chengwei Xia, Yini Liu, Wei Yong, Xin Qing\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00432-025-06113-0\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Breast cancer (BC) poses an increasing threat to women's health, yet its characteristics in women of childbearing age (WCBA) are infrequently reported. This study aims to investigate the patterns and trends in BC incidence among WCBA over the past decades.</p><p><strong>Materials and methods: </strong>This study focuses on BC incidence in women aged 15-49 years, consistent with the WHO definition of WCBA. Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for BC incidence in WCBA were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021. We utilized an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change in incidence (net drift, % per year) and the annual percentage change within each age group (local drift, % per year). This model also provided fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period deviations (age effects) and period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) from 1992 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the global incidence of BC among WCBA was 561.44 thousand (95% UI 519.76 to 606.99). Between 1992 and 2021, the estimated annual change in BC incidence among WCBA was 0.47 (95% CI 0.41-0.52) worldwide, ranging from -0.43 (95% CI -0.54--0.31) in High sociodemographic index (SDI) region to 2.03 (95% CI 1.97-2.1) in Low-middle SDI region. Local drift analysis showed that higher SDI regions had higher age-standardized incidence rates among WCBA, with age effects demonstrating similar patterns across different SDI regions and increasing risk with age. Notably, the rising trend in BC incidence among WCBA occurs at progressively younger ages. Globally, unfavorable period and cohort effects were observed. All SDI regions exhibited increased period and cohort risks, except for the High SDI region, which saw a reduction in incidence rates influenced by period and cohort effects, particularly among those born after 1996.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The increasing incidence of BC among WCBA highlights the urgent need for effective intervention and preventive policies to alleviate this growing global burden.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":15118,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology\",\"volume\":\"151 2\",\"pages\":\"75\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-02-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11814059/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-025-06113-0\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-025-06113-0","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
背景：乳腺癌（BC）对妇女健康的威胁越来越大，但其在育龄妇女（WCBA）中的特点却很少被报道。本研究旨在调查过去几十年来WCBA中BC发病率的模式和趋势。材料和方法：本研究关注15-49岁女性BC发病率，符合WHO对WCBA的定义。WCBA中BC发病率的估计值和95%不确定区间（UIs）来自2021年全球疾病负担研究。我们使用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型来估计发病率的总体年变化百分比（净漂移，每年%）和每个年龄组内的年变化百分比（本地漂移，每年%）。该模型还提供了1992年至2021年经时期偏差（年龄效应）和时期/队列相对风险（时期/队列效应）调整后的拟合纵向年龄特异性比率。结果：2021年，WCBA全球BC发病率为561.44万例（95% UI为519.76 ~ 606.99）。1992年至2021年间，世界范围内WCBA BC发病率的年变化估计为0.47 (95% CI 0.41-0.52)，范围从高社会人口指数（SDI）地区的-0.43 （95% CI -0.54- 0.31）到中低SDI地区的2.03 （95% CI 1.97-2.1）。局部漂移分析表明，高SDI地区WCBA的年龄标准化发病率较高，年龄效应在不同SDI地区表现出相似的模式，并且随着年龄的增长风险增加。值得注意的是，在WCBA中，BC发病率的上升趋势发生在越来越年轻的年龄。在全球范围内，观察到不利的时期和队列效应。所有SDI地区都表现出增加的时期和队列风险，除了高SDI地区，受时期和队列效应的影响，发病率降低，特别是在1996年以后出生的人中。结论：WCBA中BC发病率的上升凸显了迫切需要有效的干预和预防政策来减轻这一日益增长的全球负担。
Global evolution of breast cancer incidence in childbearing-age women aged 15-49 years: a 30-year analysis.
Background: Breast cancer (BC) poses an increasing threat to women's health, yet its characteristics in women of childbearing age (WCBA) are infrequently reported. This study aims to investigate the patterns and trends in BC incidence among WCBA over the past decades.
Materials and methods: This study focuses on BC incidence in women aged 15-49 years, consistent with the WHO definition of WCBA. Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for BC incidence in WCBA were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021. We utilized an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage change in incidence (net drift, % per year) and the annual percentage change within each age group (local drift, % per year). This model also provided fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period deviations (age effects) and period/cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) from 1992 to 2021.
Results: In 2021, the global incidence of BC among WCBA was 561.44 thousand (95% UI 519.76 to 606.99). Between 1992 and 2021, the estimated annual change in BC incidence among WCBA was 0.47 (95% CI 0.41-0.52) worldwide, ranging from -0.43 (95% CI -0.54--0.31) in High sociodemographic index (SDI) region to 2.03 (95% CI 1.97-2.1) in Low-middle SDI region. Local drift analysis showed that higher SDI regions had higher age-standardized incidence rates among WCBA, with age effects demonstrating similar patterns across different SDI regions and increasing risk with age. Notably, the rising trend in BC incidence among WCBA occurs at progressively younger ages. Globally, unfavorable period and cohort effects were observed. All SDI regions exhibited increased period and cohort risks, except for the High SDI region, which saw a reduction in incidence rates influenced by period and cohort effects, particularly among those born after 1996.
Conclusion: The increasing incidence of BC among WCBA highlights the urgent need for effective intervention and preventive policies to alleviate this growing global burden.
期刊介绍：
The "Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology" publishes significant and up-to-date articles within the fields of experimental and clinical oncology. The journal, which is chiefly devoted to Original papers, also includes Reviews as well as Editorials and Guest editorials on current, controversial topics. The section Letters to the editors provides a forum for a rapid exchange of comments and information concerning previously published papers and topics of current interest. Meeting reports provide current information on the latest results presented at important congresses.
The following fields are covered: carcinogenesis - etiology, mechanisms; molecular biology; recent developments in tumor therapy; general diagnosis; laboratory diagnosis; diagnostic and experimental pathology; oncologic surgery; and epidemiology.
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