Can place‐based crime prevention impacts be sustained over long durations? 11‐Year follow‐up of a quasi‐experimental evaluation of a CCTV project

Research summaryA long‐standing critique of place‐based crime prevention interventions has been that any reductions in crime are often short‐lived. If researchers do not carry out longer‐duration follow‐ups, we cannot know for sure if the effects of these interventions will persist, decay, or even strengthen. Using a rigorous microsynthetic control design, we evaluated the long‐term impacts of a large‐scale, public‐area closed‐circuit television (CCTV) surveillance project in Newark, New Jersey. Results show that the CCTV project was associated with a statistically significant reduction of auto theft in the intermediate term (3–4 years). The reduction of auto theft approached statistical significance (p = 0.08) during the short term (1–2 years). The analysis also observed potential displacement effects, with displacement of robbery (p = 0.09) in the short term (1–2 years) and theft from auto (p = 0.06) in the long term (9–11 years) approaching statistical significance.Policy implicationsThe results of this study may suggest the potential for a slightly modified view of deterrence decay. The CCTV project's effect on auto theft grew from approaching significant to statistically significant between the short‐term and intermediate‐term periods. Such “sleeper effects” suggest that an extended period was necessary for CCTV to generate deterrence. The deterrence decay during the long‐term period did not occur until after these sleeper effects emerged, which may be understood as deterrence attenuation. Although only approaching statistical significance—and not as pronounced as the reduction of auto theft—the potential displacement of robbery and theft from auto indicates that static CCTV target areas may facilitate offenders taking advantage of nearby crime opportunities while appearing inconspicuous within CCTV viewsheds. In sum, policymakers should be mindful that research evidence limited to short‐term impacts may fail to detect nuanced effects relevant for policy and public guidance.