用地理加权泊松回归（GWPR）模型改进家庭保险费率制定：评估水患风险

IF 2 4区社会学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI:10.1007/s12061-024-09632-4

Maria-Victoria Rivas-Lopez, Mariano Matilla-García, Roman Minguez-Salido, Miguel Angel Bravo-Ovalle

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究考察了房屋保险费率发展的空间异质性，特别关注整个西班牙的水害。这一重点源于需要建立一种方法，该方法不仅要改进水损害的费率制定程序，而且要承认气候变化的潜在影响，允许根据水索赔的地点和频率对降雨等变量的影响进行区分。通过使用GWPR模型，考虑了空间异质性，并通过识别与水害索赔频率相关的空间集群来增强费率制定过程。此外，还利用西班牙领土水覆盖的家庭保险数据数据库进行了实证发展。在此过程中选择的变量不仅与天气有关，还与保单的特征、住房和保单持有人的社会经济条件有关。

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Improving Home Insurance Ratemaking with Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) Model: Assessing Water Damage Risk

This study examines the consideration of spatial heterogeneity in the development of Home Insurance rates, specifically focusing on water damage throughout Spain. This focus arises from the need to establish a methodology that not only improves ratemaking procedures for water damage but also acknowledges the potential impacts of climate change, allowing differentiation in the effect of variables such as rainfall depending on the location and frequency of water claims. By using the GWPR model, spatial heterogeneity is taken into account and the ratemaking process is enhanced by identifying spatial clusters related to the frequency of water damage claims. Moreover, an empirical development has been carried out employing a database of home insurance data for water coverage in the Spanish territory. The variables selected in this process are not only associated with weather, but also with characteristics of the policies, housing, and socio-economic conditions of the policyholders.

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来源期刊

Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Description The journal has an applied focus: it actively promotes the importance of geographical research in real world settings It is policy-relevant: it seeks both a readership and contributions from practitioners as well as academics The substantive foundation is spatial analysis: the use of quantitative techniques to identify patterns and processes within geographic environments The combination of these points, which are fully reflected in the naming of the journal, establishes a unique position in the marketplace. RationaleA geographical perspective has always been crucial to the understanding of the social and physical organisation of the world around us. The techniques of spatial analysis provide a powerful means for the assembly and interpretation of evidence, and thus to address critical questions about issues such as crime and deprivation, immigration and demographic restructuring, retailing activity and employment change, resource management and environmental improvement. Many of these issues are equally important to academic research as they are to policy makers and Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy aims to close the gap between these two perspectives by providing a forum for discussion of applied research in a range of different contexts Topical and interdisciplinaryIncreasingly government organisations, administrative agencies and private businesses are requiring research to support their ‘evidence-based’ strategies or policies. Geographical location is critical in much of this work which extends across a wide range of disciplines including demography, actuarial sciences, statistics, public sector planning, business planning, economics, epidemiology, sociology, social policy, health research, environmental management. FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy will draw on applied research from diverse problem domains, such as transport, policing, education, health, environment and leisure, in different international contexts. The journal will therefore provide insights into the variations in phenomena that exist across space, it will provide evidence for comparative policy analysis between domains and between locations, and stimulate ideas about the translation of spatial analysis methods and techniques across varied policy contexts. It is essential to know how to measure, monitor and understand spatial distributions, many of which have implications for those with responsibility to plan and enhance the society and the environment in which we all exist. Readership and Editorial BoardAs a journal focused on applications of methods of spatial analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy will be of interest to scholars and students in a wide range of academic fields, to practitioners in government and administrative agencies and to consultants in private sector organisations. The Editorial Board reflects the international and multidisciplinary nature of the journal.