气候变化适应中的意向-行为差距：来自纵向调查数据的证据

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108543

Daniel Osberghaus , W.J. Wouter Botzen , Martin Kesternich

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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用德国5000多户家庭的大型纵向调查数据集，我们分析了防洪和减少热应力措施的陈述意图和实际实施情况，以评估气候变化适应中的意图行为差距（IBG）。我们的研究结果不仅揭示了大多数陈述意图的大量IBG，而且显示了它们在作为后来实现行动的良好预测器方面的局限性。此外，IBG本身很难用可观察到的家庭数据特征来解释。虽然我们确实在影响意图和实现的解释变量中发现了一些相似之处，但这些变量仅提供了对实现操作的实际级别的少量见解。与后悔理论一致，我们数据中的IBG可以部分解释为预期的后悔，这种后悔是由一种感觉造成的，这种感觉是在安装了适应措施的情况下徒劳地投资，但极端天气事件暂时不会发生。我们的研究结果对适应相关的传播活动和公共政策干预具有参考价值，特别是在自然灾害之后。

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The intention-behavior gap in climate change adaptation: Evidence from longitudinal survey data

Using a large unique longitudinal survey data set from Germany covering more than 5000 households, we analyze stated intentions and actual implementations of both flood-proofing and heat stress reduction measures to assess the intention behavior gap (IBG) in climate change adaptation. Our results do not only reveal a substantial IBG for most stated intentions, but also show their limits in serving as a good predictor for realized actions later. Moreover, the IBG itself can hardly be explained by observable household data characteristics. While we do find some similarities in explanatory variables affecting both intentions and implementations, these variables provide only little insights into the actual levels of implemented actions. In line with regret theory, the IBG in our data can be partly explained by anticipated regret caused by a feeling of having invested in vain in cases where adaptation measures are installed, but extreme weather events do not occur for the time being. Our results are informative for adaptation-related communication campaigns and public policy interventions, especially in the aftermath of natural disasters.

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来源期刊

Ecological Economics 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

12.00

自引率

5.70%

发文量

313

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Ecological Economics is concerned with extending and integrating the understanding of the interfaces and interplay between "nature''s household" (ecosystems) and "humanity''s household" (the economy). Ecological economics is an interdisciplinary field defined by a set of concrete problems or challenges related to governing economic activity in a way that promotes human well-being, sustainability, and justice. The journal thus emphasizes critical work that draws on and integrates elements of ecological science, economics, and the analysis of values, behaviors, cultural practices, institutional structures, and societal dynamics. The journal is transdisciplinary in spirit and methodologically open, drawing on the insights offered by a variety of intellectual traditions, and appealing to a diverse readership. Specific research areas covered include: valuation of natural resources, sustainable agriculture and development, ecologically integrated technology, integrated ecologic-economic modelling at scales from local to regional to global, implications of thermodynamics for economics and ecology, renewable resource management and conservation, critical assessments of the basic assumptions underlying current economic and ecological paradigms and the implications of alternative assumptions, economic and ecological consequences of genetically engineered organisms, and gene pool inventory and management, alternative principles for valuing natural wealth, integrating natural resources and environmental services into national income and wealth accounts, methods of implementing efficient environmental policies, case studies of economic-ecologic conflict or harmony, etc. New issues in this area are rapidly emerging and will find a ready forum in Ecological Economics.